Related papers: Persistence of autoregressive sequences with logar…

The article studies the almost surely asymptotics of extreme values $\bar{\xi}_n = \max_{1\leq i \leq n} \xi_i$, where $ \xi , \xi_1 , \xi_2 , \ldots$ are discrete identically distributed random variables. One of the main results on this…

In this paper, we consider a simple estimator for tail dependence coefficients of a max-stable time series and show its asymptotic normality under a mild condition. The novelty of our result is that this condition does not involve mixing…

In general, obtaining the exact steady-state distribution of queue lengths is not feasible. Therefore, we establish bounds for the tail probabilities of queue lengths. Specifically, we examine queueing systems under Heavy-Traffic (HT)…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of Markov chains $(X_n,\eta_n)$ on $\mathbb{Z}_+ \times S$, where $\mathbb{Z}_+$ is the non-negative integers and $S$ is a finite set. Neither coordinate is assumed to be Markov. We assume a moments bound…

We consider the persistence probabilities of an autoregressive chain of order one with continuous innovations. In the case of positive drifts, we show that these persistence probabilities are compound-geometric and satisfy a Baxter-Spitzer…

One of the key performance measures in queueing systems is the exponential decay rate of the steady-state tail probabilities of the queue lengths. It is known that if a corresponding fluid model is stable and the stochastic primitives have…

Given an autoregressive process X of order p (i.e. X_n = a_1 X_{n-1} + ...+ a_p X_{n_p} + Y_n where the random variables Y_1, Y_2, ... are i.i.d.), we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the process does not exceed a…

Let $Y=\sum_{k\ge 1} 1_{A_k}$ be an infinite sum of the indicators of independent events. We investigate a precise (as opposed to logarithmic) first-order asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{Y\ge n\}$ and the point…

Let $\{X_n\}$ be a Markov chain with transition probability $p_{ij}=a_{j-(i-1)^+},\forall i,j\ge 0$, where $a_j=0$ provided $j<0$, $a_0>0$, $a_0+a_1<1$ and $\sum_{n=0}^\infty a_n=1$. Let $\mu=\sum_{n=1}^\infty na_n$. It's known that…

The sums and maxima of non-stationary random length sequences of regularly varying random variables may have the same tail and extremal indices, Markovich and Rodionov (2020). The main constraint is that there exists a unique series in a…

Let $\xi(n, x)$ be the local time at $x$ for a recurrent one-dimensional random walk in random environment after $n$ steps, and consider the maximum $\xi^*(n) = \max_x \xi(n,x)$. It is known that $\limsup \xi^*(n)/n$ is a positive constant…

We consider the Markov chain $\{X_n^x\}_{n=0}^\infty$ on $\R^d$ defined by the stochastic recursion $X_{n}^{x}=\p_{\theta_{n}}(X_{n-1}^{x})$, starting at $x\in\R^d$, where $\theta_{1}, \theta_{2},...$ are i.i.d. random variables taking…

We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…

In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…

It has repeatedly been observed that loss minimization by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) leads to heavy-tailed distributions of neural network parameters. Here, we analyze a continuous diffusion approximation of SGD, called homogenized…

We obtain decay rates of probabilities of tails of polynomials in several independent random variables with heavy tails and derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of such polynomials

We consider the probability that a weighted sum of $n$ i.i.d. random variables $X_j$, $j = 1, . . ., n$, with stretched exponential tails is larger than its expectation and determine the rate of its decay, under suitable conditions on the…

Our work aims to study the tail behaviour of weighted sums of the form $\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} X_{i} \prod_{j=1}^{i}Y_{j}$, where $(X_{i}, Y_{i})$ are independent and identically distributed, with common joint distribution bivariate Sarmanov.…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

We re-visit tail the index regressions framework. For linear specifications, we find that the usual full rank condition can fail because conditioning on extreme outcomes causes regressors to degenerate to constants. Taking this into…