English
Related papers

Related papers: Rough volatility: fact or artefact?

200 papers

This paper provides a semiparametric model of estimating states of the volatility defined as the squared diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. Without assuming any functional form of the volatility function, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-07-18 I. Shoji

We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Archil Gulisashvili

High-frequency measurements and images acquired from various sources in the real world often possess a degree of self-similarity and inherent regular scaling. When data look like a noise, the scaling exponent may be the only informative…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Minkyoung Kang , Brani Vidakovic

Stochastic models with fractional Brownian motion as source of randomness have become popular since the early 2000s. Fractional Brownian motion (fBm) is a Gaussian process, whose covariance depends on the so-called Hurst parameter $H\in…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-22 Anna P. Kwossek , Andreas Neuenkirch , David J. Prömel

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-23 Jozef Barunik , Jiri Kukacka

We investigate rough-wall turbulent flows through direct numerical simulations of flow over three-dimensional transitionally rough sinusoidal surfaces. The roughness Reynolds number is fixed at $k^+=10$, where $k$ is the sinusoidal…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-12-09 M. MacDonald , L. Chan , D. Chung , N. Hutchins , A. Ooi

We examine two stochastic processes with random parameters, which in their basic versions (i.e., when the parameters are fixed) are Gaussian and display long range dependence and anomalous diffusion behavior, characterized by the Hurst…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-16 Hubert Woszczek , Agnieszka Wylomanska , Aleksei Chechkin

We consider stochastic differential equation involving pathwise integral with respect to fractional Brownian motion. The estimates for the Hurst parameter are constructed according to first- and second-order quadratic variations of observed…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-28 K. Kubilius , Y. Mishura

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-03 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette

We introduce a canonical way of performing the joint lift of a Brownian motion $W$ and a low-regularity adapted stochastic rough path $\mathbf{X}$, extending [Diehl, Oberhauser and Riedel (2015). A L\'evy area between Brownian motion and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Ofelia Bonesini , Emilio Ferrucci , Ioannis Gasteratos , Antoine Jacquier

We analyze the effect of additive fractional noise with Hurst parameter $H > \frac{1}{2}$ on fast-slow systems. Our strategy is based on sample paths estimates, similar to the approach by Berglund and Gentz in the Brownian motion case. Yet,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Katharina Eichinger , Christian Kuehn , Alexandra Neamtu

Motivated by the construction of the It\^o stochastic integral, we consider a step function method to discretize and simulate volatility modulated L\'evy semistationary processes. Moreover, we assess the accuracy of the method with a…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-11 Mikkel Bennedsen , Asger Lunde , Mikko S. Pakkanen

We consider a system of multiscale stochastic differential equations whose slow component is drivenby a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H greater than 1/2. Under ergodic assumptions ensuring the applicability of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Xue-Mei Li , Colin Piernot , Szymon Sobczak , Kexing Ying

We study the first-passage time, the distribution of the maximum, and the absorption probability of fractional Brownian motion of Hurst parameter $H$ with both a linear and a non-linear drift. The latter appears naturally when applying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-12 Maxence Arutkin , Benjamin Walter , Kay Joerg Wiese

We consider the time discretization of fractional stochastic wave equation with Gaussian noise, which is negatively correlated. Major obstacles to design and analyze time discretization of stochastic wave equation come from the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-05-20 Xing Liu

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette

We propose a microstructural model for the order flow in financial markets that distinguishes between {\it core orders} and {\it reaction flow}, both modeled as Hawkes processes. This model has a natural scaling limit that reconciles a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-03 Johannes Muhle-Karbe , Youssef Ouazzani Chahdi , Mathieu Rosenbaum , Grégoire Szymanski

In this paper, we develop econometric tools to analyze the integrated volatility of the efficient price and the dynamic properties of microstructure noise in high-frequency data under general dependent noise. We first develop consistent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-14 Z. Merrick Li , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel H. Vellekoop

Fractal behavior and long-range dependence have been observed in an astonishing number of physical systems. Either phenomenon has been modeled by self-similar random functions, thereby implying a linear relationship between fractal…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-26 Tilmann Gneiting , Martin Schlather

Fractional Brownian motion is a non-Markovian Gaussian process $X_t$, indexed by the Hurst exponent $H$. It generalises standard Brownian motion (corresponding to $H=1/2$). We study the probability distribution of the maximum $m$ of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-11-25 Mathieu Delorme , Kay Joerg Wiese