Related papers: Analysis of persistence-based solar irradiance for…
The variable Sun is the most likely candidate for natural forcing of past climate change on time scales of 50 to 1000 years. Evidence for this understanding is that the terrestrial climate correlates positively with solar activity. During…
Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth's climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these…
The Sun has long been considered a constant star, to the extent that its total irradiance was termed the solar constant. It required radiometers in space to detect the small variations in solar irradiance on timescales of the solar rotation…
Improving irradiance forecasting is critical to further increase the share of solar in the energy mix. On a short time scale, fish-eye cameras on the ground are used to capture cloud displacements causing the local variability of the…
Present-day semi-empirical models of solar irradiance (SI) variations employ spectra computed on one-dimensional atmosphere models (1D models) representative of various solar surface features to reconstruct SI changes measured on timescales…
Current solar flare predictions often lack precise quantification of their reliability, resulting in frequent false alarms, particularly when dealing with datasets skewed towards extreme events. To improve the trustworthiness of space…
We compute a new generation of standard solar models (SSMs) that includes recent updates on some important nuclear reaction rates and a more consistent treatment of the equation of state. Models also include a novel and flexible treatment…
The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…
This paper presents initial values of global and diffuse luminous efficacy at Saint-Pierre (Reunion Island). Firstly, data used were measured for a period of 6 months, from February to June 2008. During this period, all defined day-types…
Power systems engineers are actively developing larger power plants out of photovoltaics imposing some major challenges which include its intermittent power generation and its poor dispatchability. The issue is that PV is a variable…
A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the…
Classical field forecast evaluation relies mainly on local scores such as RMSE or MAE. These metrics severely over-penalize small spatial or temporal displacements of coherent structures, a limitation known as the double-penalty issue and…
High-resolution climatic data are essential to many applications in environmental research. Here we develop a new semi-mechanistic downscaling approach for daily precipitation that incorporates high resolution (30 arc sec) satellite-derived…
Standard solar models (SSMs) provide a reference framework across a number of research fields: solar and stellar models, solar neutrinos, particle physics the most conspicuous among them. The accuracy of the physical description of the…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
This paper describes a new way to predict real time series using complex-valued elements. An example is given in the case of the short-term probabilistic global solar irradiance forecasts with measurement as real part and an estimate of the…
We assess empirical models in climate econometrics using modern statistical learning techniques. Existing approaches are prone to outliers, ignore sample dependencies, and lack principled model selection. To address these issues, we…
Knowing the behavior of solar radiation at a geographic location is essential for the use of energy from the sun using photovoltaic systems; however, the number of stations for measuring meteorological parameters and for determining the…
Weather and atmospheric patterns are often persistent. The simplest weather forecasting method is the so-called persistence model, which assumes that the future state of a system will be similar (or equal) to the present state. Machine…
Due to the increasing integration of solar power into the electrical grid, forecasting short-term solar irradiance has become key for many applications, e.g.~operational planning, power purchases, reserve activation, etc. In this context,…