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Forecast combination and model averaging have become popular tools in forecasting and prediction, both of which combine a set of candidate estimates with certain weights and are often shown to outperform single estimates. A data-driven…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-31 Jiahui Zou , Andrey Vasnev , Wendun Wang , Xinyu Zhang

Machine learning is susceptible to poisoning attacks, in which an attacker controls a small fraction of the training data and chooses that data with the goal of inducing some behavior unintended by the model developer in the trained model.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Evan Rose , Fnu Suya , David Evans

Offline evaluation plays a central role in benchmarking recommender systems when online testing is impractical or risky. However, it is susceptible to two key sources of bias: exposure bias, where users only interact with items they are…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Bruno L. Pereira , Alan Said , Rodrygo L. T. Santos

The finite sensitivity of instruments or detection methods means that data sets in many areas of astronomy, for example cosmological or exoplanet surveys, are necessarily systematically incomplete. Such data sets, where the population being…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-10-14 Adam B. Mantz

In observational study, the propensity score has the central role to estimate causal effects. Since the propensity score is usually unknown, estimating by appropriate procedures is an indispensable step. A point to note that a causal effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-19 Shunichiro Orihara

Analysis of sample survey data often requires adjustments to account for missing data in the outcome variables of principal interest. Standard adjustment methods based on item imputation or on propensity weighting factors rely heavily on…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-08 Wei-Yin Loh , John Eltinge , MoonJung Cho , Yuanzhi Li

As statistical classifiers become integrated into real-world applications, it is important to consider not only their accuracy but also their robustness to changes in the data distribution. In this paper, we consider the case where there is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-12 Virgile Landeiro , Aron Culotta

The propensity score (PS) is often used to control for large numbers of covariates in high-dimensional healthcare database studies. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) has become the most widely used tool for fitting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-17 Richard Wyss , Ben B. Hansen , Georg Hahn , Lars van der Laan , Kueiyu Joshua Lin

The weak-to-strong generalization phenomenon is the driver for important machine learning applications including highly data-efficient learning and, most recently, performing superalignment. While decades of research have resulted in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Changho Shin , John Cooper , Frederic Sala

In the last decade, machine learning techniques have gained popularity for estimating causal effects. One machine learning approach that can be used for estimating an average treatment effect is Double/debiased machine learning (DML)…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-17 Daniele Ballinari , Nora Bearth

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Anna Sokol , Nuno Moniz , Nitesh Chawla

A significant hurdle for analyzing large sample data is the lack of effective statistical computing and inference methods. An emerging powerful approach for analyzing large sample data is subsampling, by which one takes a random subsample…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-24 Rong Zhu , Ping Ma , Michael W. Mahoney , Bin Yu

Real-world datasets are inherently heterogeneous, yet how per-class structural differences and sampling imbalance shape the training dynamics of diffusion models-and potentially exacerbate disparities-remains poorly understood. While models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Flavio Nicoletti , Chenxiao Ma , Enrico Ventura , Luca Saglietti , Stefano Sarao Mannelli

A common goal in comparative effectiveness research is to estimate treatment effects on pre-specified subpopulations of patients. Though widely used in medical research, causal inference methods for such subgroup analysis remain…

Compressing word embeddings is important for deploying NLP models in memory-constrained settings. However, understanding what makes compressed embeddings perform well on downstream tasks is challenging---existing measures of compression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-16 Avner May , Jian Zhang , Tri Dao , Christopher Ré

Computing averages over a target probability density by statistical re-weighting of a set of samples with a different distribution is a strategy which is commonly adopted in fields as diverse as atomistic simulation and finance. Here we…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2012-02-21 Michele Ceriotti , Guy A. R. Brain , Oliver Riordan , David E. Manolopoulos

Understanding how feature learning affects generalization is among the foremost goals of modern deep learning theory. Here, we study how the ability to learn representations affects the generalization performance of a simple class of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Jacob A. Zavatone-Veth , William L. Tong , Cengiz Pehlevan

Fairness-aware learning aims to mitigate discrimination against specific protected social groups (e.g., those categorized by gender, ethnicity, age) while minimizing predictive performance loss. Despite efforts to improve fairness in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-02 Kewen Peng , Yicheng Yang , Hao Zhuo

Estimating causal effects from observational data is challenging due to selection bias, which leads to imbalanced covariate distributions across treatment groups. Propensity score-based weighting methods are widely used to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Ahmad Saeed Khan , Erik Schaffernicht , Johannes Andreas Stork

Logistic regression is widely used to model the propensity score in the analysis of nonignorable missing data. However, goodness-of-fit testing for this propensity score model has received limited attention in the literature. In this paper,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Manli Cheng , Yangjianchen Xu , Qinglong Tian , Pengfei Li
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