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This paper describes an approach to simultaneously identify clusters and estimate cluster-specific regression parameters from the given data. Such an approach can be useful in learning the relationship between input and output when the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-02 Udai Nagpal , Krishan Nagpal

Accurate calibration of stochastic agent-based models (ABMs) in epidemiology is crucial to make them useful in public health policy decisions and interventions. Traditional calibration methods, e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-28 Connor Robertson , Cosmin Safta , Nicholson Collier , Jonathan Ozik , Jaideep Ray

Balancing computational efficiency with robust predictive performance is crucial in supervised learning, especially for critical applications. Standard deep learning models, while accurate and scalable, often lack probabilistic features…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Conor Heins , Hao Wu , Dimitrije Markovic , Alexander Tschantz , Jeff Beck , Christopher Buckley

We propose stepwise variational inference (VI) with vine copulas: a universal VI procedure that combines vine copulas with a novel stepwise estimation procedure of the variational parameters. Vine copulas consist of a nested sequence of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-25 Elisabeth Griesbauer , Leiv Rønneberg , Arnoldo Frigessi , Claudia Czado , Ingrid Hobæk Haff

We introduce Group Spike-and-slab Variational Bayes (GSVB), a scalable method for group sparse regression. A fast co-ordinate ascent variational inference (CAVI) algorithm is developed for several common model families including Gaussian,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Michael Komodromos , Marina Evangelou , Sarah Filippi , Kolyan Ray

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Laplace approximation (LA) and variational inference (VI) methods are popular approaches to Bayesian inference, each with trade-offs between computational cost and accuracy. However, a theoretical…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-16 Martin Chak , Giacomo Zanella

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan , Tamer A. Zaki , Michael D. Shields

We provide the first convergence guarantee for full black-box variational inference (BBVI), also known as Monte Carlo variational inference. While preliminary investigations worked on simplified versions of BBVI (e.g., bounded domain,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Kyurae Kim , Jisu Oh , Kaiwen Wu , Yi-An Ma , Jacob R. Gardner

Dimension reduction algorithms aim to discover latent variables which describe underlying structures in high-dimensional data. Methods such as factor analysis and principal component analysis have the downside of not offering much…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-23 Yong See Foo , Heejung Shim

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-18 Marguerite Petit-Talamon , Marc Lambert , Anna Korba

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is a widely recognised as an efficient method for sampling a specified posterior distribution. However, when the posterior is multi-modal, conventional MCMC algorithms either tend to become…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2014-08-19 Yi-Ming Hu , Martin Hendry , Ik Siong Heng

This is a course project report with complete methodology, experiments, references and mathematical derivations. Matrix factorization [1] is a widely used technique in recommendation systems. Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) [2]…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Ruixuan Xu , Xiangxiang Weng

Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-12 Geonhee Han , Andrew Gelman

Sampling and Variational Inference (VI) are two large families of methods for approximate inference that have complementary strengths. Sampling methods excel at approximating arbitrary probability distributions, but can be inefficient. VI…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-07 Richard D. Lange , Ari Benjamin , Ralf M. Haefner , Xaq Pitkow

Recently, Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) has been increasingly attractive thanks to its ability to find good posterior approximations of probabilistic models. It optimizes the variational objective with stochastic optimization,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Minta Liu , Suliang Bu

Large spatial datasets with non-Gaussian responses are increasingly common in environmental monitoring, ecology, and remote sensing, yet scalable Bayesian inference for such data remains challenging. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Jin Hyung Lee , Ben Seiyon Lee

Boosting variational inference (BVI) approximates an intractable probability density by iteratively building up a mixture of simple component distributions one at a time, using techniques from sparse convex optimization to provide both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Trevor Campbell , Xinglong Li

The main computational challenge in Bayesian inference is to compute integrals against a high-dimensional posterior distribution. In the past decades, variational inference (VI) has emerged as a tractable approximation to these integrals,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-09 Anya Katsevich , Philippe Rigollet

Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-05 Reza Hajargasht