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In this paper we explore optimal liquidation in a market populated by a number of heterogeneous market makers that have limited inventory-carrying and risk-bearing capacity. We derive a reduced form model for the dynamic of their aggregated…
In this paper, we present a simple stock market model (the market game) which incorporates, as ab initio dynamics delayed majority dynamics, according to which agents (with heterogeneous strategies and price expectations) are rewarded if…
The price of financial assets are, since Bachelier, considered to be described by a (discrete or continuous) time sequence of random variables, i.e a stochastic process. Sharp scaling exponents or unifractal behavior of such processes has…
Algorithmic trading, due to its inherent nature, is a difficult problem to tackle; there are too many variables involved in the real world which make it almost impossible to have reliable algorithms for automated stock trading. The lack of…
We study strategic interactions in a broker-mediated market in which agents learn and exploit each other's private information. A broker provides liquidity to an informed trader and to noise traders while managing inventory in a lit market.…
A new model for stocks markets using integer values for each stock price is presented. In contrast with previously reported models, the variables used in the model are not of binary type, but of more general integer type. It is shown how…
New theoretical approaches about forecasting stock markets are proposed. A mathematization of the stock market in terms of arithmetical relations is given, where some simple (non-differential, non-fractal) expressions are also suggested as…
Previous research has found that high-frequency traders will vary the bid or offer price rapidly over periods of milliseconds. This is a benefit to fast traders who can time their trades with microsecond precision, however it is a cost to…
Oft-cited causes of mini-flash crashes include human errors, endogenous feedback loops, the nature of modern liquidity provision, fundamental value shocks, and market fragmentation. We develop a mathematical model which captures aspects of…
We postulates, and then show experimentally, that liquidity deficit is the driving force of the markets. In the first part of the paper a kinematic of liquidity deficit is developed. The calculus-like approach, which is based on…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is…
We examine dynamic coupling and feedback effects between High Frequency Traders (HFTs) and how they can destabilize markets. We develop a general framework for modelling dynamic interaction based on recurrence relations, and use this to…
When agents are acting together, they may need a simple mechanism to decide on joint actions. One possibility is to have the agents express their preferences in the form of a ballot and use a voting rule to decide the winning action(s).…
We analyze sources of error in prediction market forecasts in order to bound the difference between a security's price and the ground truth it estimates. We consider cost-function-based prediction markets in which an automated market maker…
Backtest is a way of financial risk evaluation which helps to analyze how our trading algorithm would work in markets with past time frame. The high volatility situation has always been a critical situation which creates challenges for…
Classic studies of the probability density of price fluctuations $g$ for stocks and foreign exchanges of several highly developed economies have been interpreted using a {\it power-law} probability density function $P(g) \sim…
This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range…
We study overpricing in a repeated game between two representative agents: a market maker, who controls market liquidity, and a market taker, who chooses trade quantities. Market prices evolve through the endogenous price impact of trades…
In a market with transaction costs, the price of a derivative can be expressed in terms of (preconsistent) price systems (after Kusuoka (1995)). In this paper, we consider a market with binomial model for stock price and discuss how to…