Related papers: Performance evaluation of volatility estimation me…
The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…
This paper offers a new approach for estimating and forecasting the volatility of financial time series. No assumption is made about the parametric form of the processes. On the contrary, we only suppose that the volatility can be…
This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based model. The Multivariate VAR-GARCH technique documents the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity…
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is…
Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…
A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…
Volatility is a quantity of measurement for the price movements of stocks or options which indicates the uncertainty within financial markets. As an indicator of the level of risk or the degree of variation, volatility is important to…
This paper develops the first closed-form optimal portfolio allocation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a GARCH(1,1) process. We consider an investor with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility who wants to maximize…
In order to estimate the conditional risk of a portfolio's return, two strategies can be advocated. A multivariate strategy requires estimating a dynamic model for the vector of risk factors, which is often challenging, when at all…
This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…
This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties…
This study introduces a dynamic investment framework to enhance portfolio management in volatile markets, offering clear advantages over traditional static strategies. Evaluates four conventional approaches : equal weighted, minimum…
Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…
The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
We study a series of static and dynamic portfolios of VIX futures and their effectiveness to track the VIX index. We derive each portfolio using optimization methods, and evaluate its tracking performance from both empirical and theoretical…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference…
This study aims to compare multiple deep learning-based forecasters for the task of predicting volatility using multivariate data. The paper evaluates a range of models, starting from simpler and shallower ones and progressing to deeper and…