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In certain privacy-sensitive scenarios within fields such as clinical trial simulations, federated learning, and distributed learning, researchers often face the challenge of estimating correlations between variables without access to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Longwen Shang , Min Tsao , Xuekui Zhang

We are concerned with obtaining well-calibrated output distributions from regression models. Such distributions allow us to quantify the uncertainty that the model has regarding the predicted target value. We introduce the novel concept of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-16 Hao Song , Tom Diethe , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

Risk assessment in casualty insurance, such as flood risk, traditionally relies on extreme-value methods that emphasizes rare events. These approaches are well-suited for characterizing tail risk, but do not capture the broader dynamics of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-22 Samuel Perreault , Silvana M. Pesenti , Daniyal Shahzad

We formulate the statistics of the discrete multicomponent fragmentation event using a methodology borrowed from statistical mechanics. We generate the ensemble of all feasible distributions that can be formed when a single integer…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-03 Themis Matsoukas

Several collective risk models have recently been proposed by relaxing the widely used but controversial assumption of independence between claim frequency and severity. Approaches include the bivariate copula model, random effect model,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-11 Rosy Oh , Jae Youn Ahn , Woojoo Lee

Regression models for limited continuous dependent variables having a non-negligible probability of attaining exactly their limits are presented. The models differ in the number of parameters and in their flexibility. Fractional data being…

Applications · Statistics 2012-05-31 Fabio Sigrist , Werner A. Stahel

The assessment of regression models with discrete outcomes is challenging and has many fundamental issues. With discrete outcomes, standard regression model assessment tools such as Pearson and deviance residuals do not follow the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-15 Lu Yang

We propose a probability distribution for multivariate binary random variables. The probability distribution is expressed as principal minors of the parameter matrix, which is a matrix analogous to the inverse covariance matrix in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Takashi Arai

Prior to clinical applications, it is critical that risk prediction models are evaluated in independent studies that did not contribute to model development. While prospective cohort studies provide a natural setting for model validation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-13 Parichoy Pal Choudhury , Anil K. Chaturvedi , Nilanjan Chatterjee

In this paper, we address the identification and estimation of insurance models where insurees have private information about their risk and risk aversion. The model includes random damages and allows for several claims, while insurers…

General Economics · Economics 2024-10-14 Gaurab Aryal , Isabelle Perrigne , Quang Vuong , Haiqing Xu

When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

A key challenge in estimating causal effects from observational data is handling confounding and is commonly achieved through weighting methods that balance distribution of covariates between treatment and control groups. Weighting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Simion De , Jared D. Huling

Imputation is a popular technique for handling item nonresponse in survey sampling. Parametric imputation is based on a parametric model for imputation and is less robust against the failure of the imputation model. Nonparametric imputation…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-20 Danhyang Lee , Jae Kwang Kim

Generalized linear models, such as logistic regression, are widely used to model the association between a treatment and a binary outcome as a function of baseline covariates. However, the coefficients of a logistic regression model…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-04 Jiaqi Yin , Sonia Markes , Thomas S. Richardson , Linbo Wang

Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli , Matteo Schiavone

In this paper, we propose a novel axiomatic approach to evaluating the joint risk of multiple insurance risks under dependence uncertainty. Motivated by both the theory of expected utility and the Cobb-Dauglas utility function, we establish…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-14 Shuo Gong , Yijun Hu , Linxiao Wei

A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Jennifer Wadsworth , Ryan Campbell

In semivarying coefficient models for longitudinal/clustered data, usually of primary interest is usually the parametric component which involves unknown constant coefficients. First, we study semiparametric efficiency bound for estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-15 Ming-Yen Cheng , Toshio Honda , Jialiang Li

This article considers nonparametric regression models with multivariate covariates and with responses missing at random. We estimate the regression function with a local polynomial smoother. The residual-based empirical distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-27 Justin Chown , Ursula U. Müller

This paper proposes new estimators for the propensity score that aim to maximize the covariate distribution balance among different treatment groups. Heuristically, our proposed procedure attempts to estimate a propensity score model by…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-04-07 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Xiaojun Song , Qi Xu
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