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This paper presents new theory and methodology for the Bayesian estimation of overfitted hidden Markov models, with finite state space. The goal is then to achieve posterior emptying of extra states. A prior configuration is constructed…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-09 Zoé van Havre , Judith Rousseau , Nicole White , Kerrie Mengersen

Nonlinear Mixed effects models are hidden variables models that are widely used in many fields such as pharmacometrics. In such models, the distribution characteristics of hidden variables can be specified by including several parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Edouard Ollier

I tackle the problem of partitioning a sequence into homogeneous segments, where homogeneity is defined by a set of Markov models. The problem is to study the likelihood that a sequence is divided into a given number of segments. Here, the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-17 Laurent Guéguen

We consider a class of semi-Markov processes (SMP) such that the embedded discrete time Markov chain may be non-homogeneous. The corresponding augmented processes are represented as semi-martingales using stochastic integral equation…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-14 Anindya Goswami , Subhamay Saha , Ravishankar Kapildev Yadav

In this contribution, we consider the problem of the blind separation of noisy instantaneously mixed images. The images are modelized by hidden Markov fields with unknown parameters. Given the observed images, we give a Bayesian formulation…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Hichem Snoussi , Ali Mohammad-Djafari

In several multiobjective decision problems Pairwise Comparison Matrices (PCM) are applied to evaluate the decision variants. The problem that arises very often is the inconsistency of a given PCM. In such a situation it is important to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Marcin Anholcer , Janos Fülöp

Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-29 Shaohua Li , Ryohei Fujimaki , Chunyan Miao

Performing model selection for coupled hidden Markov models (CHMMs) is highly challenging, owing to the large dimension of the hidden state process. Whilst in principle the hidden state process can be marginalized out via forward filtering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-26 Jake Carson , Trevelyan J. McKinley , Peter Neal , Simon E. F. Spencer

In this paper, we are interested in optimal decisions in a partially observable Markov universe. Our viewpoint departs from the dynamic programming viewpoint: we are directly approximating an optimal strategic tree depending on the…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Frederic Dambreville

In this paper, we consider the filtering and smoothing recursions in nonparametric finite state space hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the parameters of the model are unknown and replaced by estimators. We provide an explicit and time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-24 Yohann De Castro , Elisabeth Gassiat , Sylvain Le Corff

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) model specific environments in sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Critically, optimal policies for POMDPs may not be robust against perturbations in the environment.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Maris F. L. Galesloot , Roman Andriushchenko , Milan Češka , Sebastian Junges , Nils Jansen

Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance…

Computation · Statistics 2016-01-13 Daniel Turek , Perry de Valpine , Christopher J. Paciorek

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are characterized by an unobservable Markov chain and an observable process -- a noisy version of the hidden chain. Decoding the original signal from the noisy observations is one of the main goals in nearly all…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Alexandre Mösching , Housen Li , Axel Munk

Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-01 Grigory Alexandrovich , Hajo Holzmann , Anna Leister

Few-shot segmentation is challenging because objects within the support and query images could significantly differ in appearance and pose. Using a single prototype acquired directly from the support image to segment the query image causes…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-02 Boyu Yang , Chang Liu , Bohao Li , Jianbin Jiao , Qixiang Ye

Scaling probabilistic models to large realistic problems and datasets is a key challenge in machine learning. Central to this effort is the development of tractable probabilistic models (TPMs): models whose structure guarantees efficient…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Honghua Zhang , Steven Holtzen , Guy Van den Broeck

We study algorithms to analyze a particular class of Markov population processes that is often used in epidemiology. More specifically, Markov binomial chains are the model that arises from stochastic time-discretizations of classical…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Alejandro Alarcón Gonzalez , Niel Hens , Tim Leys , Guillermo A. Pérez

We consider a class of filtering problems for large populations where each individual is modeled by the same hidden Markov model (HMM). In this paper, we focus on aggregate inference problems in HMMs with discrete state space and continuous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Qinsheng Zhang , Rahul Singh , Yongxin Chen

In this paper, a condition-based imperfect maintenance model based on piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) is constructed. The degradation of the system includes two types: natural degradation and random shocks. The natural…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-25 Weikai Wang , Xian Chen

Parallel tempering (PT) is a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms that constructs a path of distributions annealing between a tractable reference and an intractable target, and then interchanges states along the path to improve…