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We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Daniel Edward Pagendam

Evaluating the degree of partisan districting (Gerrymandering) in a statistical framework typically requires an ensemble of districting plans which are drawn from a prescribed probability distribution that adheres to a realistic and…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-19 Gregory Herschlag , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Matthias Sachs , Evan Wyse

This paper addresses the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions. In particular, we have considered a recently proposed technique known as population Monte Carlo (PMC), which is based on an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-03 Eugenia Koblents , Joaquín Míguez

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-01 Hector J. Hortua , Riccardo Volpi , Dimitri Marinelli , Luigi Malago

Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-20 Tim Salimans , Diederik P. Kingma , Max Welling

In many applications of Bayesian clustering, posterior sampling on the discrete state space of cluster allocations is achieved via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. As it is typically challenging to design transition kernels to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-14 Masoud Asgharian , Martin Lysy , Vahid Partovi Nia

A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-06 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of {\it a-posteriori} estimators which are often…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 Luca Martino

Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of high-dimensional parameters that represent the discretization of an underlying function. This work introduces a family of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-03 Tiangang Cui , Kody J. H. Law , Youssef M. Marzouk

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-03 Johan Alenlöv , Arnaud Doucet , Fredrik Lindsten

Due to the escalating growth of big data sets in recent years, new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parallel computing methods have been developed. These methods partition large data sets by observations into subsets. However, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-21 Zheng Wei , Erin M. Conlon

Bayesian model selection enables comparison and ranking of conceptual subsurface models described by spatial prior models, according to the support provided by available geophysical data. Deep generative neural networks can efficiently…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-19 M. Amaya , N. Linde , E. Laloy

A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-02-10 Heiko Strathmann , Dino Sejdinovic , Mark Girolami

Bayesian neural learning feature a rigorous approach to estimation and uncertainty quantification via the posterior distribution of weights that represent knowledge of the neural network. This not only provides point estimates of optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-13 Rohitash Chandra , Konark Jain , Ratneel V. Deo , Sally Cripps

In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-31 Christopher K. Carter , Eduardo F. Mendes , Robert Kohn

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yaxian Xu

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods can be used to sample from posterior distributions when the likelihood function is unavailable or intractable, as is often the case in biological systems. ABC methods suffer from inefficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Charlie Rogers-Smith , Henri Pesonen , Samuel Kaski

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Hyunsu Kim , Giung Nam , Chulhee Yun , Hongseok Yang , Juho Lee

Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Panagiotis Papastamoulis , Fotios Milienos

We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-15 Jordan Franks
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