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Related papers: A probabilistic view on rupture predictability: al…

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Today, observations of earthquake precursors remain widely debated. While precursory slow slip is an important feature of earthquake nucleation, foreshock sequences are not always observed and their temporal evolution remains unconstrained.…

Fluid injections can induce aseismic slip, resulting in stress changes that may propagate faster than pore pressure diffusion, potentially triggering seismicity at significant distances from injection wells. Constraining the maximum extent…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-09-06 Alexis Sáez , François Passelègue , Brice Lecampion

In the quest to determine fault weakening processes that govern earthquake mechanics, it is common to infer the earthquake breakdown energy from seismological measurements. Breakdown energy is observed to scale with slip, which is often…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-07-15 Chun-Yu Ke , Gregory C. McLaskey , David S. Kammer

This text surveys different probabilistic aspects of a model which is used to describe the evolution of an object that falls apart randomly as time passes. Each point of view yields useful techniques to establish properties of such random…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jean Bertoin

We consider a branching random walk in a random space-time environment of disasters where each particle is killed when meeting a disaster. This extends the model of the "random walk in a disastrous random environment" introduced by [15]. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-13 Nina Gantert , Stefan Junk

The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-11-07 Friedemann Freund , Guy Ouillon , John Scoville , Didier Sornette

A method that exactly knows the earthquakes beforehand and can generalize them cannot still been developed. However, earthquakes are tried to be predicted through numerous methods. One of these methods, artificial neural networks give…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-07-05 Handan Cam , Osman Duman

The recently introduced Minimalist Model [Vazquez- Prada et al., 2002] of characteristic earthquakes provides a simple representation of the seismicity originated in a sin- gle fault. Here, we first characterize the properties of this model…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2009-09-29 R. Lopez-Ruiz , M. Vazquez-Prada , J. B. Gomez , A. F. Pacheco

The deformation of rocks is associated with microcracks nucleation and propagation, i.e. damage. The accumulation of damage and its spatial localization lead to the creation of a macroscale discontinuity, so-called "fault" in geological…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-09-19 David Amitrano

A conjecture on imminent earthquake prediction is presented. Drastic geological deformations of crustal rock strata taking place immediately (hours/days) before an earthquake may cause fast air or gas emission/absorption vertically in…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-04-23 Xin Liu

Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-30 Daniel S. Fisher , Karin Dahmen , Sharad Ramanathan , Yehuda Ben-Zion

Fundamentally related to the UV divergence problem in Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making the…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-12 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette

Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We…

The rapid characterisation of earthquake parameters such as its magnitude is at the heart of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). In traditional EEW methods the robustness in the estimation of earthquake parameters have been observed to increase…

Understanding and predicting uncertain things are the central themes of scientific evolution. Human beings revolve around these fears of uncertainties concerning various aspects like a global pandemic, health, finances, to name but a few.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-08-31 Sayantan Nag Chowdhury , Arnob Ray , Arindam Mishra , Dibakar Ghosh

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any…

Over the last two decades, strain and GPS measurements have shown that slow slip on earthquake faults is a widespread phenomenon. Slow slip is also inferred from correlated small amplitude seismic signals known as nonvolcanic tremor and low…

We present a detailed statistical analysis of acoustic emission time series from laboratory rock fracture obtained from different experiments on different materials including acoustic emission controlled triaxial fracture and punch-through…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 Jörn Davidsen , Sergei Stanchits , Georg Dresen

We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-10-29 V. Gertsik , M. Kelbert , A. Krichevets

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…