Related papers: A probabilistic view on rupture predictability: al…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
A model for fault dynamics consisting of two rough and rigid brownian profiles that slide one over the other is introduced. An earthquake occurs when there is an intersection between the two profiles. The energy release is proportional to…
The nature of the high-speed rupture or the main shock of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model in two dimensions obeying the rate-and-state dependent friction law is studied by means of extensive computer simulations. It is found that…
Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…
The decay pattern of aftershocks in the so-called 'coherent-noise' models [M. E. J. Newman and K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. E54, 6226 (1996)] is studied in detail. Analytical and numerical results show that the probability to find a large event…
We present a simple model of earthquakes on a pre-existing hierarchical fault network. The system self-organizes on long time scales in a stationary state with a power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes. The largest…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
In the standard rebound theory of earthquakes, elastic deformation energy is progressively stored in the crust until a threshold is reached at which it is suddenly released in an earthquake. We review three important paradoxes, the strain…
We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current…
Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…
Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…
Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in…
Natural disaster strikes at any given moment from seemingly out of nowhere Akin to earthquake that strongly affects human with different magnitudes through the course of time. The main aim of this study is the fractal analysis of seismic…
We present an overview of our ongoing studies of the rich dynamical behavior of the uniform, deterministic Burridge--Knopoff model of an earthquake fault. We discuss the behavior of the model in the context of current questions in…
The $b$-value in the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law contains information that is essential for evaluating earthquake hazard and predicting the occurrence of large earthquakes. Estimates of $b$ are often based on seismic events whose magnitude…
Potential energy stored during the inter-seismic period by tectonic loading around faults is released during earthquakes as radiated energy, heat and fracture energy. The latter is of first importance since it controls the nucleation,…
We study the asymptotic distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is asymptotically…
Endurance time method is a time history dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to predesigned intensifying excitations. This method provides a tool for response prediction that correlates structural responses to the intensity of…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…