Related papers: Variational inference of fractional Brownian motio…
This paper is concerned with Random walk approximations of the Brownian motion on the Affine group Aff(R). We are in particular interested in the case where the innovations are discrete. In this framework, the return probability of the walk…
In this work we explore a straightforward variational Bayes scheme for Recurrent Neural Networks. Firstly, we show that a simple adaptation of truncated backpropagation through time can yield good quality uncertainty estimates and superior…
Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…
It is difficult to use subsampling with variational inference in hierarchical models since the number of local latent variables scales with the dataset. Thus, inference in hierarchical models remains a challenge at large scale. It is…
Gravitational wave astronomy typically relies on rigorous, computationally expensive Bayesian analyses. Several methods have been developed to perform rapid Bayesian inference, but they are not yet used to inform our full analyses. We…
Amortized inference promises fast test-time Bayesian inference, but existing methods are inherently tied to fixed models. Extending amortization to unseen models typically requires retraining or costly test-time finetuning. In this paper,…
The quantification of myocardial perfusion MRI has the potential to provide a fast, automated and user-independent assessment of myocardial ischaemia. However, due to the relatively high noise level and low temporal resolution of the…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric models for function approximation with principled predictive uncertainty estimates. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multilayer generalizations of GPs that can represent complex marginal…
Traditional imitation learning provides a set of methods and algorithms to learn a reward function or policy from expert demonstrations. Learning from demonstration has been shown to be advantageous for navigation tasks as it allows for…
We propose a new Bayesian Neural Net formulation that affords variational inference for which the evidence lower bound is analytically tractable subject to a tight approximation. We achieve this tractability by (i) decomposing ReLU…
We consider the problem of state estimation in general state-space models using variational inference. For a generic variational family defined using the same backward decomposition as the actual joint smoothing distribution, we establish…
We investigated the quality of forecasting of fractional Brownian motion, and new method for estimating of Hurst exponent is validated. Stochastic model of the time series in the form of converted fractional Brownian motion is proposed. The…
In this paper we present a new and flexible method to show that, in one dimension, various self-repellent random walks converge to self-repellent Brownian motion in the limit of weak interaction after appropriate space-time scaling. Our…
Using structures of Abstract Wiener Spaces, we define a fractional Brownian field indexed by a product space $(0,1/2] \times L^2(T,m)$, $(T,m)$ a separable measure space, where the first coordinate corresponds to the Hurst parameter of…
Modeling the temporal behavior of data is of primordial importance in many scientific and engineering fields. Baseline methods assume that both the dynamic and observation equations follow linear-Gaussian models. However, there are many…
We propose a variational Bayesian inference procedure for online nonlinear system identification. For each output observation, a set of parameter posterior distributions is updated, which is then used to form a posterior predictive…
The fractional Brownian motion (fBm) extends the standard Brownian motion by introducing some dependence between non-overlapping increments. Consequently, if one considers for example that log-prices follow an fBm, one can exploit the…
We study linear models under heavy-tailed priors from a probabilistic viewpoint. Instead of computing a single sparse most probable (MAP) solution as in standard deterministic approaches, the focus in the Bayesian compressed sensing…
The paper gives a new representation for the fractional Brownian motion that can be applied to simulate this self-similar random process in continuous time. Such a representation is based on the spectral form of mathematical description and…
We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…