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Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

Deep generative models produce data according to a learned representation, e.g. diffusion models, through a process of approximation computing possible samples. Approximation can be understood as reconstruction and the large datasets used…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-09-25 Luís Arandas , Mick Grierson , Miguel Carvalhais

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-29 Tiep Mai , Simon Wilson

Bayesian inversion is central to the quantification of uncertainty within problems arising from numerous applications in science and engineering. To formulate the approach, four ingredients are required: a forward model mapping the unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-15 O. Deniz Akyildiz , Mark Girolami , Andrew M. Stuart , Arnaud Vadeboncoeur

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-16 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-25 Steven Winter , Trevor Campbell , Lizhen Lin , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

In many real-world problems, there is a limited set of training data, but an abundance of unlabeled data. We propose a new method, Generative Posterior Networks (GPNs), that uses unlabeled data to estimate epistemic uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Melrose Roderick , Felix Berkenkamp , Fatemeh Sheikholeslami , Zico Kolter

Deep generative models such as diffusion and flow matching are powerful machine learning tools capable of learning and sampling from high-dimensional distributions. They are particularly useful when the training data appears to be…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-04-30 Zachary Bogorad , Ibrahim Elsharkawy , Yonatan Kahn , Andrew J. Larkoski , Noam Levi

Bayesian analysis is increasingly popular for use in social science and other application areas where the data are observations from an informative sample. An informative sampling design leads to inclusion probabilities that are correlated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-07 Terrance D. Savitsky , Daniell Toth

This paper extends the work of Clarke [1] on the Bayesian foundations of the biomagnetic inverse problem. It derives expressions for the expectation and variance of the a posteriori source current probability distribution given a prior…

Medical Physics · Physics 2009-10-31 R. Hasson , S. J. Swithenby

Score-based diffusion models demonstrate superior performance in generative tasks but encounter fundamental bottlenecks in inverse problems due to the analytical intractability of the time-dependent likelihood score. To bridge this gap, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Boyang Zhang , Zhiguo Wang , Ya-Feng Liu

We describe a probabilistic (generative) view of affinity matrices along with inference algorithms for a subclass of problems associated with data clustering. This probabilistic view is helpful in understanding different models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Romer Rosales , Brendan J. Frey

Recursive Bayesian inference, in which posterior beliefs are updated in light of accumulating data, is a tool for implementing Bayesian models in applications with streaming and/or very large data sets. As the posterior of one iteration…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Henry R. Scharf

This paper addresses the issue of inversion in cases where (1) the observation system is modeled by a linear transformation and additive noise, (2) the problem is ill-posed and regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework by an a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jean-François Giovannelli

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to a large class of discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors. To express such models, we…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Fabian Zaiser , Andrzej S. Murawski , Luke Ong

Geoscientists often solve inverse problems to estimate values of parameters of interest given relevant data sets. Bayesian inference solves these problems by combining probability distributions that describe uncertainties in both…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-04-30 Xuebin Zhao , Andrew Curtis , Klaus Mosegaard

We consider Bayesian inference for large scale inverse problems, where computational challenges arise from the need for repeated evaluations of an expensive forward model. This renders most Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches infeasible,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-08-12 Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Jiaoyang Huang , Sebastian Reich , Andrew M. Stuart

Posterior distributions arising in ill-posed Bayesian inverse problems are often both analytically intractable and highly sensitive to parameters of the chosen prior family. We aim to understand the sensitivity of intractable posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-20 Yucong Liu , Zilai Si , Alexander Strang

Inverse problems consist in reconstructing signals from incomplete sets of measurements and their performance is highly dependent on the quality of the prior knowledge encoded via regularization. While traditional approaches focus on…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-04 Antonio Montanaro , Diego Valsesia , Enrico Magli

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-21 Jinlin Lai , Charles C. Margossian , Daniel R. Sheldon