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Related papers: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Reward Models

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Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks. However, these models could offer biased, hallucinated, or non-factual responses camouflaged by their fluency and realistic appearance. Uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Zhiqiu Xia , Jinxuan Xu , Yuqian Zhang , Hang Liu

Reliability of machine learning (ML) systems is crucial in safety-critical applications such as healthcare, and uncertainty estimation is a widely researched method to highlight the confidence of ML systems in deployment. Sequential and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Rishab Khincha , Wazeer Zulfikar , Satrajit Ghosh , Pattie Maes

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Aurora Grefsrud , Nello Blaser , Trygve Buanes

Designing effective reward functions is a cornerstone of reinforcement learning (RL), yet it remains a challenging and labor-intensive process due to the inefficiencies and inconsistencies inherent in traditional methods. Existing methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Shentong Mo

This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-04 Markus Holopainen , Peter Sarlin

Reward models play a key role in aligning language model applications towards human preferences. However, this setup creates an incentive for the language model to exploit errors in the reward model to achieve high estimated reward, a…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-23 Nicolas Brosse , Carlos Riquelme , Alice Martin , Sylvain Gelly , Éric Moulines

Deep learning models frequently make incorrect predictions with high confidence when presented with test examples that are not well represented in their training dataset. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-04 Tiago Ramalho , Miguel Miranda

We propose a reinforcement learning framework for discrete environments in which an agent makes both strategic and tactical decisions. The former manifests itself through the use of value function, while the latter is powered by a tree…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-05 Piotr Miłoś , Łukasz Kuciński , Konrad Czechowski , Piotr Kozakowski , Maciek Klimek

In a data-scarce field such as healthcare, where models often deliver predictions on patients with rare conditions, the ability to measure the uncertainty of a model's prediction could potentially lead to improved effectiveness of decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-26 Lotta Meijerink , Giovanni Cinà , Michele Tonutti

Reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning is crucial to aligning large language models (LLMs), but the process is notoriously unstable and exhibits high variance across model checkpoints. In practice, selecting the best checkpoint is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Manh Nguyen , Dung Nguyen , Dai Do , Svetha Venkatesh , Hung Le

Reward models (RMs) are essential for aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences. However, they often struggle with capturing complex human preferences and generalizing to unseen data. To address these challenges, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Anamika Lochab , Ruqi Zhang

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can attain excellent sample efficiency, but often lag behind the best model-free algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance. This is especially true with high-capacity parametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-05 Kurtland Chua , Roberto Calandra , Rowan McAllister , Sergey Levine

Uncertainty sampling in active learning is heavily used in practice to reduce the annotation cost. However, there has been no wide consensus on the function to be used for uncertainty estimation in binary classification tasks and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Anant Raj , Francis Bach

Supervised machine learning relies on the availability of good labelled data for model training. Labelled data is acquired by human annotation, which is a cumbersome and costly process, often requiring subject matter experts. Active…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Sharath M Shankaranarayana

A reliable uncertainty estimator is a key ingredient in the successful use of machine-learning force fields for predictive calculations. Important considerations are correlation with error, overhead during training and inference, and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-06-07 Jesús Carrete , Hadrián Montes-Campos , Ralf Wanzenböck , Esther Heid , Georg K. H. Madsen

Process Reward Models (PRMs) provide step-level supervision to large language models (LLMs), but scaling up training data annotation remains challenging for both humans and LLMs. To address this limitation, we propose an active learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-16 Keyu Duan , Zichen Liu , Xin Mao , Tianyu Pang , Changyu Chen , Qiguang Chen , Michael Qizhe Shieh , Longxu Dou