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Bayesian inference is a widely used statistical method. The free energy and generalization loss, which are used to estimate the accuracy of Bayesian inference, are known to be small in singular models that do not have a unique optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-16 Shuya Nagayasu , Sumio Watanabe

At the heart of machine learning lies the question of generalizability of learned rules over previously unseen data. While over-parameterized models based on neural networks are now ubiquitous in machine learning applications, our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-04 Melikasadat Emami , Mojtaba Sahraee-Ardakan , Parthe Pandit , Sundeep Rangan , Alyson K. Fletcher

Mixture-of-experts models provide a flexible framework for learning complex probabilistic input-output relationships by combining multiple expert models through an input-dependent gating mechanism. These models have become increasingly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-23 Nicola Bariletto , Huy Nguyen , Nhat Ho , Alessandro Rinaldo

Learning machines which have hierarchical structures or hidden variables are singular statistical models because they are nonidentifiable and their Fisher information matrices are singular. In singular statistical models, neither the Bayes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-05-11 Sumio Watanabe

Measurement error in multinomial data is a well-known and well-studied inferential problem that is encountered in many fields, including engineering, biomedical and omics research, ecology, finance, official statistics, and social sciences.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-15 Matthew D. Koslovsky , Andee Kaplan , Victoria A. Terranova , Mevin B. Hooten

In this paper, we consider mixtures of multinomial logistic models (MNL), which are known to $\epsilon$-approximate any random utility model. Despite its long history and broad use, rigorous results are only available for learning a uniform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-29 Wenpin Tang

Generalised linear models for multi-class classification problems are one of the fundamental building blocks of modern machine learning tasks. In this manuscript, we characterise the learning of a mixture of $K$ Gaussians with generic means…

Recent advances have clarified theoretical learning accuracy in Bayesian inference, revealing that the asymptotic behavior of metrics such as generalization loss and free energy, assessing predictive accuracy, is dictated by a rational…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Yuki Kurumadani

Bayesian networks are now being used in enormous fields, for example, diagnosis of a system, data mining, clustering and so on. In spite of their wide range of applications, the statistical properties have not yet been clarified, because…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Keisuke Yamazaki , Sumio Watanbe

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a new knowledge discovery method that is used for text mining, signal processing, bioinformatics, and consumer analysis. However, its basic property as a learning machine is not yet clarified, as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-10 Naoki Hayashi , Sumio Watanabe

Singularities of a statistical model are the elements of the model's parameter space which make the corresponding Fisher information matrix degenerate. These are the points for which estimation techniques such as the maximum likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-25 Nhat Ho , XuanLong Nguyen

The article considers semi-supervised multitask learning on a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Using methods from statistical physics, we compute the asymptotic Bayes risk of each task in the regime of large datasets in high dimension, from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-06 Minh-Toan Nguyen , Romain Couillet

Deep linear networks have been extensively studied, as they provide simplified models of deep learning. However, little is known in the case of finite-width architectures with multiple outputs and convolutional layers. In this manuscript,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Federico Bassetti , Marco Gherardi , Alessandro Ingrosso , Mauro Pastore , Pietro Rotondo

Generalization error bounds are critical to understanding the performance of machine learning models. In this work, building upon a new bound of the expected value of an arbitrary function of the population and empirical risk of a learning…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-05-07 Gholamali Aminian , Laura Toni , Miguel R. D. Rodrigues

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are common for modeling complex data. While these models are well-suited for density estimation, recent results proved posterior inconsistency of the number of clusters when the true number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-31 Louise Alamichel , Daria Bystrova , Julyan Arbel , Guillaume Kon Kam King

Recent advances have clarified theoretical learning accuracy in Bayesian inference, revealing that the asymptotic behavior of metrics such as generalization loss and free energy, assessing predictive accuracy, is dictated by a rational…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-15 Yuki Kurumadani

In statistical learning theory, generalization error is used to quantify the degree to which a supervised machine learning algorithm may overfit to training data. Recent work [Xu and Raginsky (2017)] has established a bound on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-16 Ankit Pensia , Varun Jog , Po-Ling Loh

Watanabe's singular learning theory provides a framework for asymptotic analysis of Bayesian model selection for statistical models with singularities, where traditional statistical regularity assumptions fail. Learning coefficients, also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-20 Mathias Drton , Elizabeth Gross , Dimitra Kosta , Anton Leykin , Seth Sullivant , Daniel Windisch

Hierarchical learning models, such as mixture models and Bayesian networks, are widely employed for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering analysis. They consist of observable and hidden variables, which represent the given data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-08 Keisuke Yamazaki

Various approaches have been developed to upper bound the generalization error of a supervised learning algorithm. However, existing bounds are often loose and even vacuous when evaluated in practice. As a result, they may fail to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Gholamali Aminian , Yuheng Bu , Laura Toni , Miguel R. D. Rodrigues , Gregory W. Wornell
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