Related papers: Valid and efficient imprecise-probabilistic infere…

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Statistics comes in two main flavors: frequentist and Bayesian. For historical and technical reasons, frequentist statistics has dominated data analysis in the past; but Bayesian statistics is making a comeback at the forefront of science.…

Consider a linear regression model with regression parameter beta and normally distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is theta = a^T beta where a is a specified vector. Define the parameter tau = c^T beta - t where c and…

Note: Published now as a chapter in "Handbook of the History and Philosophy of Mathematical Practice" (Springer Nature, editor B. Sriraman, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19071-2_105-1). The application of mathematical probability theory…

We investigate the relation between frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Namely, we find the "frequentist" Bayes prior \pi_{f}(\lambda,x_{obs}) = -\frac{\int_{-\infty}^{x_{obs}}\frac{\partial f(x,\lambda)}{\partial…

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…

This note introduces the concept of a partially specified prior distribution for certain post hoc inference problems, where a finite population is sampled once in order to make a decision on the presence or complete absence of some…

There are three principle paradigms of statistical inference: (i) Bayesian, (ii) information-based and (iii) frequentist inference. We describe an objective prior (the weighting or $w$-prior) which unifies objective Bayes and…

Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…

Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components,…

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

A new computation method of frequentist $p$-values and Bayesian posterior probabilities based on the bootstrap probability is discussed for the multivariate normal model with unknown expectation parameter vector. The null hypothesis is…

Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for effective public health interventions. This study compares Bayesian and Frequentist estimation frameworks within deterministic compartmental epidemic models, focusing on nonlinear least squares…

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Inferential models have been proposed for valid and efficient prior-free probabilistic inference. As it gradually gained popularity, this theory is subject to further developments for practically challenging problems. This paper considers…

The inferential model (IM) framework offers an alternative to the classical probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. A key distinction is that classical uncertainty quantification…

The inferential model (IM) framework offers alternatives to the familiar probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. Allowing this uncertainty quantification to be imprecise makes it…