Related papers: The Yield Curve as a Recession Leading Indicator. …

The literature on using yield curves to forecast recessions customarily uses 10-year--three-month Treasury yield spread without verification on the pair selection. This study investigates whether the predictive ability of spread can be…

We study U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting under distributional uncertainty and recast forecasting as an operations research and managerial decision problem. Rather than minimizing average forecast error, the forecaster selects a…

In this research paper, I have applied various econometric time series and two machine learning models to forecast the daily data on the yield spread. First, I decomposed the yield curve into its principal components, then simulated various…

Long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) are used to model US recessions from 1967 to 2021. Their predictive performances are compared to those of the traditional linear models. The out-of-sample performance suggests the…

This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false…

Quantitative models are an important decision-making factor for policy makers and investors. Predicting an economic recession with high accuracy and reliability would be very beneficial for the society. This paper assesses machine learning…

This study develops the E-Rule, a novel composite recession indicator that integrates financial market and labor market signals to improve the precision of recession forecasting. Combining the yield curve and the Sahm rule, the E-Rule…

While machine learning has revolutionized many fields such as natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision, its impact on time-series forecasting is still widely disputed, especially in the finance domain. This paper compares…

We investigate the effectiveness of different machine learning methodologies in predicting economic cycles. We identify the deep learning methodology of Bi-LSTM with Autoencoder as the most accurate model to forecast the beginning and end…

This paper uses standard and penalized logistic regression models to predict the Great Recession and the Covid-19 recession in the US in real time. It examines the predictability of various macroeconomic and financial indicators with…

In this paper, I explored how a range of regression and machine learning techniques can be applied to monthly U.S. unemployment data to produce timely forecasts. I compared seven models: Linear Regression, SGDRegressor, Random Forest,…

Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…

The credit spread is a key indicator in bond investments, offering valuable insights for fixed-income investors to devise effective trading strategies. This study proposes a novel credit spread forecasting model leveraging ensemble learning…

We explore tree-based macroeconomic regime-switching in the context of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) yield-curve model. In particular, we customize the tree-growing algorithm to partition macroeconomic variables based on the DNS model's…

Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we…

In the following paper, we use a topic modeling algorithm and sentiment scoring methods to construct a novel metric that serves as a leading indicator in recession prediction models. We hypothesize that the inclusion of such a sentiment…

To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -- the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the…

Nyman and Ormerod (2017) show that the machine learning technique of random forests has the potential to give early warning of recessions. Applying the approach to a small set of financial variables and replicating as far as possible a…

Technical trading rules and linear regressive models are often used by practitioners to find trends in financial data. However, these models are unsuited to find non-linearly separable patterns. We propose a decision tree forecasting model…

Communication is now a standard tool in the central bank's monetary policy toolkit. Theoretically, communication provides the central bank an opportunity to guide public expectations, and it has been shown empirically that central bank…