Related papers: Controlling the flexibility of non-Gaussian proces…

Uncertainty quantification requires efficient summarization of high- or even infinite-dimensional (i.e., non-parametric) distributions based on, e.g., suitable point estimates (modes) for posterior distributions arising from model-specific…

In this paper novel simulation methods are provided for the generalised inverse Gaussian (GIG) L\'{e}vy process. Such processes are intractable for simulation except in certain special edge cases, since the L\'{e}vy density associated with…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…

Gaussian processes constitute a very powerful and well-understood method for non-parametric regression and classification. In the classical framework, the training data consists of deterministic vector-valued inputs and the corresponding…

In this paper, we propose a novel learning-based robust feedback linearization strategy to ensure precise trajectory tracking for an important family of Lagrangian systems. We assume a nominal knowledge of the dynamics is given but no…

Modeling complex systems, like neural networks, simple liquids or flocks of birds, often works in reverse to textbook approaches: given data for which averages and correlations are known, we try to find the parameters of a given model…

This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…

We study nonparametric Bayesian inference for the intensity function of a covariate-driven point process. We extend recent results from the literature, showing that a wide class of Gaussian priors, combined with flexible link functions,…

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

This study introduces a novel theoretical framework for analyzing heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGPs) that identify unknown systems in a data-driven manner. Although HGPs effectively address the heteroscedasticity of noise in complex…

Gaussian process regression can flexibly represent the posterior distribution of an interest parameter given sufficient information on the likelihood. However, in some cases, we have little knowledge regarding the probability model. For…

In this article, we investigate posterior convergence in nonparametric regression models where the unknown regression function is modeled by some appropriate stochastic process. In this regard, we consider two setups. The first setup is…

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

We develop a mixture model for transition density approximation, together with soft model selection, in the presence of noisy and heterogeneous nonlinear dynamics. Our model builds on the Gaussian mixture transition distribution (MTD) model…

Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification in a general class of non-linear inverse regression models is considered. Analytic conditions on the regression model $\{\mathscr G(\theta): \theta \in \Theta\}$ and on Gaussian process…

Filtering is a general name for inferring the states of a dynamical system given observations. The most common filtering approach is Gaussian Filtering (GF) where the distribution of the inferred states is a Gaussian whose mean is an affine…

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by…

We forecast S&P 500 excess returns using a flexible Bayesian econometric state space model with non-Gaussian features at several levels. More precisely, we control for overparameterization via novel global-local shrinkage priors on the…

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs), a hierarchical composition of GP models, have successfully boosted the expressive power of their single-layer counterpart. However, it is impossible to perform exact inference in DGPs, which has motivated the…