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Causal discovery between collections of time-series data can help diagnose causes of symptoms and hopefully prevent faults before they occur. However, reliable causal discovery can be very challenging, especially when the data acquisition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Haonan Chen , Bo Yuan Chang , Mohamed A. Naiel , Georges Younes , Steven Wardell , Stan Kleinikkink , John S. Zelek

Computing Granger causal relations among bivariate experimentally observed time series has received increasing attention over the past few years. Such causal relations, if correctly estimated, can yield significant insights into the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 Hariharan Nalatore , Govindan Rangarajan , Mingzhou Ding

Time-series causal discovery methods rely on assumptions such as stationarity, regular sampling, and bounded temporal dependence. When these assumptions are violated, structure learning can produce confident but misleading causal graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Marco Ruiz , Miguel Arana-Catania , David R. Ardila , Rodrigo Ventura

Inferring causation from time series data is of scientific interest in different disciplines, particularly in neural connectomics. While different approaches exist in the literature with parametric modeling assumptions, we focus on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Rahul Biswas , SuryaNarayana Sripada , Somabha Mukherjee

Granger Causality (GC) offers an elegant statistical framework to study the association between multivariate time series data. Vector autoregressive models (VAR) are simple and easy to fit, but have limited application because of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Malik Shahid Sultan , Hernando Ombao , Maurizio Filippone

Time-varying causal models provide a powerful framework for studying dynamic scientific systems, yet most existing approaches assume that the underlying causal network is known a priori - an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world domains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Dmitry Zaytsev , Valentina Kuskova , Michael Coppedge

We study causality between bivariate curve time series using the Granger causality generalized measures of correlation. With this measure, we can investigate which curve time series Granger-causes the other; in turn, it helps determine the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-21 Han Lin Shang , Kaiying Ji , Ufuk Beyaztas

Traditionally, statistical and causal inference on human subjects rely on the assumption that individuals are independently affected by treatments or exposures. However, recently there has been increasing interest in settings, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-25 Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Ilya Shpitser , Youjin Lee

Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-24 Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Causal discovery with time series data remains a challenging yet increasingly important task across many scientific domains. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) and related methods have been proposed to study time series that are generated by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Daniel Waxman , Petar M. Djurić

Since distribution shifts are common in real-world applications, there is a pressing need to develop prediction models that are robust against such shifts. Existing frameworks, such as empirical risk minimization or distributionally robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Xinwei Shen , Peter Bühlmann , Armeen Taeb

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection assume linear dynamics, many interactions in real-world applications, like neuroscience and genomics, are inherently nonlinear. In these cases, using linear models may lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Alex Tank , Ian Covert , Nicholas Foti , Ali Shojaie , Emily Fox

We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-29 Jalal Etesami , Ali Habibnia , Negar Kiyavash

In the pursue for sustainability in process industry, digital twins necessitate the communication and storage of timeseries data about Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). Regarding timeseries, this paper first presents a set of…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-10-09 Christoph Nölle , Petri Kannisto

The use of Internet of Things (IoT) sensors for air pollution monitoring has significantly increased, resulting in the deployment of low-cost sensors. Despite this advancement, accurately calibrating these sensors in uncontrolled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Keivan Faghih Niresi , Mengjie Zhao , Hugo Bissig , Henri Baumann , Olga Fink

Time series generation (TSG) synthesizes realistic sequences and has achieved remarkable success. Among TSG, conditional models generate sequences given observed covariates, however, such models learn observational correlations without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Yutong Xia , Chang Xu , Yuxuan Liang , Li Zhao , Qingsong Wen , Roger Zimmermann , Jiang Bian

Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Zhipeng Ma , Marco Kemmerling , Daniel Buschmann , Chrismarie Enslin , Daniel Lütticke , Robert H. Schmitt

The ultimate goal of most scientific studies is to understand the underlying causal mechanism between the involved variables. Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used to represent such causal mechanisms. Given an SCM, causal queries…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-21 Beate Sick , Oliver Dürr

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

Granger causality is among the widely used data-driven approaches for causal analysis of time series data with applications in various areas including economics, molecular biology, and neuroscience. Two of the main challenges of this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Proloy Das , Behtash Babadi
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