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Estimating long-term treatment effects has a wide range of applications in various domains. A key feature in this context is that collecting long-term outcomes typically involves a multi-stage process and is subject to monotone missing,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Qinwei Yang , Ruocheng Guo , Shasha Han , Peng Wu

Electronic health records are being increasingly used in medical research to answer more relevant and detailed clinical questions; however, they pose new and significant methodological challenges. For instance, observation times are likely…

Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-01 Xiao Zhou , Xiaohu Zhang , Paolo Santi , Carlo Ratti

Two Cox-based multistate modeling approaches are compared for analyzing a complex multicohort event history process. The first approach incorporates cohort information as a fixed covariate, thereby providing a direct estimation of the…

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of observational data from mobile and social networking, online advertising, web mining, healthcare, education, public policy, marketing campaigns, and so on, which facilitates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-06 Zhixuan Chu , Ruopeng Li , Stephen Rathbun , Sheng Li

Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Tobias Maringgele

The unprecedented outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), or COVID-19, continues to be a significant worldwide problem. As a result, a surge of new COVID-19 related research has followed suit. The growing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Maksim E. Eren , Nick Solovyev , Chris Hamer , Renee McDonald , Boian S. Alexandrov , Charles Nicholas

The years 2020 and 2021 were characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic. The true impact of the pandemic on populations' health and life still has to be fully discerned. The main objective of this work is to discern the true impact of COVID-19…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-17 Stefano Barone

Counterfactual inference is a useful tool for comparing outcomes of interventions on complex systems. It requires us to represent the system in form of a structural causal model, complete with a causal diagram, probabilistic assumptions on…

Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-20 Giacomo De Nicola , Göran Kauermann

Causal inference of exact individual treatment outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders is rarely possible. Recent work has extended prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees to partially identifiable causal outcomes, by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Myrl G. Marmarelis , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan , Fred Morstatter

Introduction: For COVID-19 patients accurate prediction of disease severity and mortality risk would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation. There are many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities that…

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a heavy burden to the healthcare system worldwide and caused huge social disruption and economic loss. Many deep learning models have been proposed to conduct clinical predictive tasks such as mortality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Junyi Gao , Yinghao Zhu , Wenqing Wang , Yasha Wang , Wen Tang , Ewen M. Harrison , Liantao Ma

Matrix completion estimators are employed in causal panel data models to regulate the rank of the underlying factor model using nuclear norm minimization. This convex optimization problem enables concurrent regularization of a potentially…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-05 Sandro Heiniger

Having a large number of covariates can have a negative impact on the quality of causal effect estimation since confounding adjustment becomes unreliable when the number of covariates is large relative to the samples available. Propensity…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-15 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu

The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the measures of disease impact that can be of importance for policy making. Here we show that many of the studies on which these estimates are based are scientifically flawed for…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-24 Chen Shen , Derrick Van Gennep , Alexander F. Siegenfeld , Yaneer Bar-Yam

In the wake of COVID-19, every government huddles to find the best interventions that will reduce the number of infection cases while minimizing the economic impact. However, with many intervention policies available, how should one decide…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-19 Chang Liu , Akshay Budhkar

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-28 G. D. Barmparis , G. P. Tsironis

Data increasingly take the form of a multi-way array, or tensor, in several biomedical domains. Such tensors are often incompletely observed. For example, we are motivated by longitudinal microbiome studies in which several timepoints are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-01 Ziren Jiang , Gen Li , Eric F. Lock
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