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We design sequential tests for a large class of nonparametric null hypotheses based on elicitable and identifiable functionals. Such functionals are defined in terms of scoring functions and identification functions, which are ideal…
We develop a theory of \emph{sharp measure zero} sets that parallels Borel's \emph{strong measure zero}, and prove a theorem analogous to Galvin-Myscielski-Solovay Theorem, namely that a set of reals has sharp measure zero if and only if it…
For each 1 < p < infinity, there exists a positive constant c_p, depending only on p, such that the following holds. Let (d_k), (e_k) be real-valued martingale difference sequences. If for for all bounded nonnegative predictable sequences…
We introduce the concept of stochastic measure-valued solutions to the complete Euler system describing the motion of a compressible inviscid fluid subject to stochastic forcing, where the nonlinear terms are described by defect measures.…
An important question for a probabilistic program is whether the probability mass of all its diverging runs is zero, that is that it terminates "almost surely". Proving that can be hard, and this paper presents a new method for doing so; it…
We give a new proof of the Dalang-Morton-Willinger theorem, relating the no-arbitrage condition in stochastic securities market models to the existence of an equivalent martingale measure with bounded density for a $d$-dimensional…
Given a sequence $(M^n)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ of nonnegative martingales starting at $M^n_0=1$, we find a sequence of convex combinations $(\widetilde{M}^n)^{\infty}_{n=1}$ and a limiting process $X$ such that…
This paper extends results of Mortimer and Williams (1991) about changes of probability measure up to a random time under the assumptions that all martingales are continuous and that the random time avoids stopping times. We consider…
Given a composite null $ \mathcal P$ and composite alternative $ \mathcal Q$, when and how can we construct a p-value whose distribution is exactly uniform under the null, and stochastically smaller than uniform under the alternative?…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…
Given a random sample from a random variable $T$ which is bounded from above, $T\le\tau$ a.s., we define processes that are positive supermartingales if $E(T)\ge\mu$. Such processes are called test martingales. Tests of the supermartingale…
A measure of association is said to be collapsible over a set of baseline covariates if the marginal value of the measure of association is equal to a weighted average of the stratum-specific measures of association. In this paper, we…
From the perspective of expectations of randomly stopped sums, Wald's equation and the Optional Sampling Theorem identify situations in which the stopping time can be decoupled from the stopping place, acting as if the two were independent.…
We investigate the almost sure asymptotic properties of vector martingale transforms. Assuming some appropriate regularity conditions both on the increasing process and on the moments of the martingale, we prove that normalized moments of…
This paper shows that finitely additive measures occur naturally in very general Divergence Theorems. The main results are two such theorems. The first proves the existence of pure normal measures for sets of finite perime- ter, which yield…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…
In the paper, the martingales and super-martingales relative to a regular set of measures are systematically studied. The notion of local regular super-martingale relative to a set of equivalent measures is introduced and the necessary and…
The Doob convergence theorem implies that the set of divergence of any martingale has measure zero. We prove that, conversely, any $G\_{\delta\sigma}$ subset of the Cantor space with Lebesgue-measure zero can be represented as the set of…
The phenomenon of superconvergence is proved for all freely infinitely divisible distributions. Precisely, suppose that the partial sums of a sequence of free identically distributed, infinitesimal random variables converge in distribution…
The variation of a martingale $p_0^k=p_0,...,p_k$ of probabilities on a finite (or countable) set $X$ is denoted $V(p_0^k)$ and defined by $V(p_0^k)=E(\sum_{t=1}^k|p_t-p_{t-1}|_1)$. It is shown that $V(p_0^k)\leq \sqrt{2kH(p_0)}$, where…