Related papers: Change-point Detection and Segmentation of Discret…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Piecewise growth mixture models (PGMM) are a flexible and useful class of methods for analyzing segmented trends in individual growth trajectory over time, where the individuals come from a mixture of two or more latent classes. These…

Multiple Classifier Systems (MCSs) allow evaluation of the uncertainty of classification outcomes that is of crucial importance for safety critical applications. The uncertainty of classification is determined by a trade-off between the…

Real-valued time series are ubiquitous in the sciences and engineering. In this work, a general, hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework is developed for building mixture models for times series. This development is based, in part, on the…

The context tree source is a source model in which the occurrence probability of symbols is determined from a finite past sequence, and is a broader class of sources that includes i.i.d. and Markov sources. The proposed source model in this…

Phylogenetic trees describe the relationships between species in the evolutionary process, and provide information about the rates of diversification. To understand the mechanisms behind macroevolution, we consider a class of multitype…

Joint distributions over many variables are frequently modeled by decomposing them into products of simpler, lower-dimensional conditional distributions, such as in sparsely connected Bayesian networks. However, automatically learning such…

Finite element model updating is challenging because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield responses that are similar with respect to…

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

When analysing multiple time series that may be subject to changepoints, it is sometimes possible to specify a priori, by means of a graph, which pairs of time series are likely to be impacted by simultaneous changepoints. This article…

A framework based on generalized hierarchical random graphs (GHRGs) for the detection of change points in the structure of temporal networks has recently been developed by Peel and Clauset [1]. We build on this methodology and extend it to…

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Changes in the timescales at which complex systems evolve are essential to predicting critical transitions and catastrophic failures. Disentangling the timescales of the dynamics governing complex systems remains a key challenge. With this…

It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

In this paper, we propose a fast, well-performing, and consistent method for segmenting a piecewise-stationary, linear time series with an unknown number of breakpoints. The time series model we use is the nonparametric Locally Stationary…

We propose a new technique for consistent estimation of the number and locations of the change-points in the structure of an irregularly spaced time series. The core of the segmentation procedure is the Ensemble Binary Segmentation method…

Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

Change point detection for time series analysis is a difficult and important problem in applied statistics, for which a variety of approaches have been developed in the past several decades. Here, the Wasserstein metric is employed as a…