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Bayesian causal discovery offers the power to quantify epistemic uncertainties among a broad range of structurally diverse causal theories potentially explaining the data, represented in forms of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However,…
Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov…
We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…
The perceived advantage of machine learning (ML) models is that they are flexible and can incorporate a large number of features. However, many of these are typically correlated or dependent, and incorporating all of them can hinder model…
Transporting causal information across populations is a critical challenge in clinical decision-making. Causal modeling provides criteria for identifiability and transportability, but these require knowledge of the causal graph, which…
We present a probabilistic model for stochastic iterative algorithms with the use case of optimization algorithms in mind. Based on this model, we present PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for functions that are defined on the trajectory…
The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…
We propose a sampling algorithm to perform system identification from a set of input-output graph signal pairs. The dynamics of the systems we study are given by a partially known adjacency matrix and a generic parametric graph filter of…
Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…
Choosing a uniformly sampled simple directed graph realization of a degree sequence has many applications, in particular in social networks where self-loops are commonly not allowed. It has been shown in the past that one can perform a…
Recursive stochastic algorithms have gained significant attention in the recent past due to data driven applications. Examples include stochastic gradient descent for solving large-scale optimization problems and empirical dynamic…
Discounted algorithms often encounter evaluation errors due to their reliance on short-term estimations, which can impede their efficacy in addressing simple, short-term tasks and impose undesired temporal discounts (\(\gamma\)).…
In this manuscript, we introduce a novel Decision Flow (DF) framework for sampling decisions from a target distribution while incorporating additional guidance from a prior sampler. DF can be viewed as an AI-driven algorithmic reincarnation…
The aim of this chapter is twofold. In the first part we will provide a brief overview of the mathematical and statistical foundations of graphical models, along with their fundamental properties, estimation and basic inference procedures.…
Lifting uses a representative of indistinguishable individuals to exploit symmetries in probabilistic relational models, denoted as parametric factor graphs, to speed up inference while maintaining exact answers. In this paper, we show how…
The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a single causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In…
We consider the problem of learning a directed graph $G^\star$ from observational data. We assume that the distribution which gives rise to the samples is Markov and faithful to the graph $G^\star$ and that there are no unobserved…
In the context of inferring a Bayesian network structure (directed acyclic graph, DAG for short), we devise a non-reversible continuous time Markov chain, the ``Causal Zig-Zag sampler'', that targets a probability distribution over classes…
One goal in Bayesian machine learning is to encode prior knowledge into prior distributions, to model data efficiently. We consider prior knowledge from systems of linear partial differential equations together with their boundary…
Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…