Related papers: When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of…
Arctic sea ice extent has declined continuously for the past decade, owing partially to light absorption by black carbon (BC) and other impurities deposited on snow and the underlying pack. We present simulations for the contemporary period…
Evidence of past climate variations are stored in ice and indicate glacial-interglacial cycles characterized by three dominant time periods of 20kyr, 40kyr, and 100kyr. We study the scaling properties of temperature proxy records of four…
Rising demand for space cooling has been placing enormous strain on various technological, environmental, and societal dimensions, resulting in issues related to energy consumption, environmental sustainability, health and well-being,…
A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When…
Young sea ice composed of grease and pancake ice (GPI), as well as thin floes, considered to be the most common form of sea ice fringing Antarctica, is now becoming the 'new normal' also in the Arctic. Investigations to determine how an…
Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate…
The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal…
The increase in Arctic marine activity due to rapid warming and significant sea ice loss necessitates highly reliable, short-term sea ice forecasts to ensure maritime safety and operational efficiency. In this work, we present a novel…
This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the…
Various climate states at high obliquity are realized for a range of stellar irradiance using a dynamical atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model in an Aquaplanet configuration. Three stable climate states are obtained that differ in the…
Rapid climate change has wide-ranging implications for the Arctic region, including sea ice loss, increased geopolitical attention, and expanding economic activity, including a dramatic increase in shipping activity. As a result, the risk…
Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…
Lake ice is a strong climate indicator and has been recognised as part of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The dynamics of freezing and thawing, and possible shifts of freezing patterns…
Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-{\AA}lesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing early warning systems in vulnerable marine regions. This…
Using data from the Longyearbyen weather station, quantile gradient boosting ("small AI") is applied to forecast daily temperatures in Svalbard, Norway. Temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius are of special interest because of their impact on…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Agricultural food production and natural ecological systems depend on a range of seasonal climate indicators that describe seasonal patterns in climatological conditions. This paper proposes a probabilistic forecasting framework for…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
A figure, taken from a science literacy test, illustrates the distribution of water across various locations on Earth, represented as though the entire volume is contained in 100 buckets. Using this figure , and other basic, readily…
Sea ice is a key component of the Earth's climate system, making its aging process an essential focus of current research. The age of sea ice is closely linked to its thermal and mechanical properties, which govern its interactions with the…