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Mitigation of climate change will highly rely on a carbon emission trajectory that achieves carbon neutrality by the 2050s. The ocean plays a critical role in modulating climate change by sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Relying on the…

Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-12-30 Richard Davy , Stephen Outten

Monitoring the dynamics of global land-ocean cover is fundamental for regulating the Earth's climate and sustaining terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, existing datasets and research often exhibit limitations in temporal resolution…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Lixing Wang , Tao Li , Xinyu Dou , Zhu Liu

Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-10-14 Isabela S. Cabral , Ian R. Young , Alessandro Toffoli

Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-17 Bohai Zhang , Noel Cressie

Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-11-06 James Hogg , Maria Fonoberova , Igor Mezic

There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a `tipping point', or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation,…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-01-23 Valerie N. Livina , Timothy M. Lenton

Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-28 Peter Yatsyshin , Karl Lapo , Oliver Strickson , Louisa van Zeeland , J. Scott Hosking , J. Nathan Kutz

The sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is an important element of the climate and ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere as it impacts albedo, atmospheric pressure regimes, CO2-exchange at the ocean/atmosphere interface as well as the North…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-02-09 Claude Hillaire-Marcel , Anne de Vernal , Michel Crucifix

Our ability to predict the future of Arctic sea ice is limited by ice's sensitivity to detailed surface conditions such as the distribution of snow and melt ponds. Snow on top of the ice decreases ice's thermal conductivity, increases its…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2022-03-09 Predrag Popović , Justin Finkel , Mary C. Silber , Dorian S. Abbot

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-12-31 I. Eisenman , J. S. Wettlaufer

Arctic amplification has altered the climate patterns both regionally and globally, resulting in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events in the past few decades. The essential part of Arctic amplification is the unprecedented…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-10 Sahara Ali , Jianwu Wang

The fluctuation statistics of the observed sea ice extent during the satellite era are compared with model output from CMIP5 models using a multi-fractal time series method. The two robust features of the observations are that on annual to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-09-02 Sahil Agarwal , John S. Wettlaufer

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Fang Yang , Yayun Zheng , Jinqiao Duan , Ling Fu , Stephen Wiggins

We present here formal evidence of a strong linkage between temperature and East Antarctic ice accumulation over the past eight hundred kiloyears, after accounting for thinning. The conclusions are based on statistical analysis of a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-27 Radhendushka Srivastava , Debasis Sengupta , Prosenjit Ghosh

Since about 2000, the total mass of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has declined at a near-linear rate, increasing global sea levels. Since 2016, however, satellite gravimetry data reveal a slowdown in net AIS mass loss and a net mass gain…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-07 Marlen Kolbe , Jose Abraham Torres Alavez , Ruth Mottram , Marwan Katurji , Richard Bintanja , Eveline C. van der Linden

Wave-sea ice interactions shape the transition zone between open ocean and pack ice in the polar regions. Most theoretical paradigms, implemented in coupled wave-sea ice models, predict exponential decay of the wave energy but some recent…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-09 Rhys Ransome , Davide Proment , Ian A. Renfrew , Alberto Alberello

1) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in southern high latitudes is extremely highly correlated with Antarctic sea ice extent. 2) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in the Arctic is highly correlated with Antarctic or Arctic plus…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-03 Clive Hambler , Peter A. Henderson

Arctic sea-ice loss is a defining feature of climate change and offers insight into its impact on mid-latitude air quality. Here, we investigate how variability in Arctic sea-ice extent (ASI) affects ground-level ozone ($O_3$) across…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-01 K Shuvo Bakar , Sourish Das , Sudeep Shukla , Anirban Chakraborti

Variability in sea ice conditions, combined with strong couplings to the atmosphere and the ocean, lead to a broad range of complex sea ice dynamics. More in-situ measurements are needed to better identify the phenomena and mechanisms that…