Related papers: On Tail Triviality of Negatively Dependent Stochas…
This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…
This paper studies properties of functions having monotone tails. We extend Theorem 1 of Dhaene et al. (2002a) and show how the tail quantiles of a random variable transformed with a monotone tail function can be expressed as the…
We show that the naive mean-field approximation correctly predicts the leading term of the logarithmic lower tail probabilities for the number of copies of a given subgraph in $G(n,p)$ and of arithmetic progressions of a given length in…
This paper studies the light-tailed asymptotics of the stationary tail probability vectors of a Markov chain of M/G/1 type. Almost all related studies have focused on the typical case, where the transition block matrices in the non-boundary…
The tail process $\boldsymbol{Y}=(Y_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ of a stationary regularly varying random field $\boldsymbol{X}=(X_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ represents the asymptotic local…
We obtain the tail probability of generalized sub-Gaussian canonical processes. It can be viewed as a variant of the Bernstein-type inequality in the i.i.d case, and we further get a tighter bound of concentration inequality through…
The extremal tail probabilities of moving sums in a marked Poisson random field is examined here. These sums are computed by adding up the weighted occurrences of events lying within a scanning set of fixed shape and size. Change of measure…
The risk of catastrophes is related to the possibility of occurring extreme values. Several statistical methodologies have been developed in order to evaluate the propensity of a process for the occurrence of high values and the permanence…
A common bottleneck in evaluating extremal performance measures is that, due to their very nature, tail data are often very limited. The conventional approach selects the best probability distribution from tail data using parametric…
In the context of controlled differential equations, the signature is the exponential function on paths. B. Hambly and T. Lyons proved that the signature of a bounded variation path is trivial if and only if the path is tree-like. We extend…
Let $\{X(t),t\ge0\}$ be a centered Gaussian process and let $\gamma$ be a non-negative constant. In this paper we study the asymptotics of $P\{\underset{t\in [0,\mathcal{T}/u^\gamma]}\sup X(t)>u\}$ as $u\to\infty$, with $\mathcal{T}$ an…
We take an $L_1$-dense class of functions $\Cal F$ on a measurable space $(X,\Cal X)$ and a sequence of i.i.d. $X$-valued random variables $\xi_1,\dots,\xi_n$, and give a good estimate on the tail behaviour of $\sup\limits_{f\in\Cal…
We present the elliptical processes -- a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsumes the Gaussian process and the Student-t process. This generalization includes a range of new fat-tailed behaviors yet retains computational…
We consider a point process sequence induced by a stationary symmetric alpha-stable (0 < alpha < 2) discrete parameter random field. It is easy to prove, following the arguments in the one-dimensional case in Resnick and Samorodnitsky…
We present a general non-parametric statistical inference theory for integrals of quantiles without assuming any specific sampling design or dependence structure. Technical considerations are accompanied by examples and discussions,…
For a branching random walk that drifts to infinity, consider its Malthusian martingale, i.e.~the additive martingale with parameter $\theta$ being the smallest root of the characteristic equation. When particles are killed below the…
In this paper, we consider a classic problem concerning the high excursion probabilities of a Gaussian random field $f$ living on a compact set $T$. We develop efficient computational methods for the tail probabilities $P(\sup_T f(t) > b)$…
A perturbative approach is used to derive approximations of arbitrary order to estimate high percentiles of sums of positive independent random variables that exhibit heavy tails. Closed-form expressions for the successive approximations…
We determine the rate of decrease of the right tail distribution of the exponential functional of a Levy process with a convolution equivalent Levy measure. Our main result establishes that it decreases as the right tail of the image under…
Let $(S_0,S_1,...)$ be a supermartingale relative to a nondecreasing sequence of $\sigma$-algebras $H_{\le0},H_{\le1},...$, with $S_0\le0$ almost surely (a.s.) and differences $X_i:=S_i-S_{i-1}$. Suppose that $X_i\le d$ and $\mathsf…