Related papers: A modelling framework for the analysis of the SARS…
There are many sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely…
The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In…
A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…
Mechanistic models fit to streaming surveillance data are critical to understanding the transmission dynamics of an outbreak as it unfolds in real-time. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even…
This paper presents a critical analysis of the literature and perspective research ideas for modeling the epidemics caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It goes beyond deterministic population dynamics to consider several key complexity features…
During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortunately, direct measures of infectiousness are generally…
A significant proportion of the infections driving the current {SARS-CoV-2} pandemic are transmitted asymptomatically. Here we introduce and study a simple epidemic model with separate compartments comprising asymptomatic and symptomatic…
We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…
In this work, we aim to study that the dynamics behavior for cumulative number of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic can provide information on the overall behavior of the spread over daily time.The cumulative data can be synthesized in an empirical form…
Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has been instrumental in tracking the spread and evolution of the virus during the pandemic. The availability of SARS-CoV-2 molecular sequences isolated from infected individuals, coupled with phylodynamic…
This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…
The present work shows that it is possible to analytically solve a general model to explain the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. First, the within-host model is described, and later a between-host model, where the coupling between them…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, community containment measures have been implemented in different parts of the world. However, despite government recommendations and mandates, a progressive increase in mobility was observed in several sites.…
In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
The viral load of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 varies on logarithmic scales and possibly with age. Controversial claims have been made in the literature regarding whether the viral load distribution actually depends on the age of the…
A central pillar of the UK's response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was the provision of up-to-the moment nowcasts and short term projections to monitor current trends in transmission and associated healthcare burden. Here we present a…
The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…
We propose a mathematical model with five compartments for the SARS-CoV-2 transmission: susceptible $S$, undetected infected asymptomatic $A$, undetected infected symptomatic $I$, confirmed positive and isolated $L$, and recovered $ R$, for…
In this paper we create a compartmental, stochastic process model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, where the process's mean and variance have distinct dynamics. The model is fit to time series data from Washington from January 2020 to March 2021…