Related papers: Using Timeliness in Tracking Infections
Network epidemiology has become a core framework for investigating the role of human contact patterns in the spreading of infectious diseases. In network epidemiology represents the contact structure as a network of nodes (individuals)…
In this paper, we propose algorithms that leverage a known community structure to make group testing more efficient. We consider a population organized in connected communities: each individual participates in one or more communities, and…
Humans, domestic animals, orchard crops, and ornamental plants are commonly treated with antibiotics in response to bacterial infection. By curing infectious individuals, antibiotic therapy might limit the spread of contagious disease among…
Virus transmission from person to person is an emergency event facing the global public. Early detection and isolation of potentially susceptible crowds can effectively control the epidemic of its disease. Existing metrics can not correctly…
The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…
The aim of the paper is to describe two models of Covid-19 infection dynamics. For this purpose a special class of branching processes with two types of individuals is considered. These models are intended to use only the observed daily…
Effective public health decisions require early reliable inference of infectious disease properties. In this paper we assess the ability to infer infectious disease attributes from population-level stochastic epidemic trajectories. In…
Based on recent studies, some COVID-19 symptoms can persist for months after infection, leading to what is termed long COVID. Factors such as vaccination timing, patient characteristics, and symptoms during the acute phase of infection may…
Gathering observational data for medical decision-making often involves uncertainties arising from both type I (false positive)and type II (false negative) errors. In this work, we develop a statistical model to study how medical…
Assume one has the capability of determining whether a node in a network is infectious or not by probing them. Then problem of optimizing sentinel surveillance in networks is to identify the nodes to probe such that an emerging disease…
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that fast and accurate analysis of continually collected infectious disease surveillance data is crucial for situational awareness and policy making. Coalescent-based phylodynamic analysis can use genetic…
This paper presents methods to choose individuals to test for infection during a pandemic such as COVID-19, characterized by high contagion and presence of asymptomatic carriers. The smart-testing ideas presented here are motivated by…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…
In this paper, we propose algorithms that leverage a known community structure to make group testing more efficient. We consider a population organized in disjoint communities: each individual participates in a community, and its infection…
An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…
In the context of a pandemic like COVID-19, and until most people are vaccinated, proactive testing and interventions have been proved to be the only means to contain the disease spread. Recent academic work has offered significant evidence…
The methods used so far for the analysis of time changes in population health suffer from the lack of causality in their design. This results in problems with their implementation and interpretation. Here the method is presented with…
Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…