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The commonly used metrics for motion prediction do not correlate well with a self-driving vehicle's system-level performance. The most common metrics are average displacement error (ADE) and final displacement error (FDE), which omit many…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-04-20 Skanda Shridhar , Yuhang Ma , Tara Stentz , Zhengdi Shen , Galen Clark Haynes , Neil Traft

Current evaluation methods for autonomous driving prediction models rely heavily on simplistic metrics such as Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE). While these metrics offer basic performance assessments,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Feifei Liu , Haozhe Wang , Zejun Wei , Qirong Lu , Yiyang Wen , Xiaoyu Tang , Jingyan Jiang , Zhijian He

The integration of discrete algorithmic components in deep learning architectures has numerous applications. Recently, Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE, Niepert, Minervini, and Franceschi 2021), a class of gradient estimators…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Pasquale Minervini , Luca Franceschi , Mathias Niepert

Agentic artificial intelligence (AI) -- multi-agent systems that combine large language models with external tools and autonomous planning -- are rapidly transitioning from research laboratories into high-stakes domains. Our earlier "Basic"…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Manish Shukla

Diffusion-based models have recently shown strong performance in trajectory planning, as they are capable of capturing diverse, multimodal distributions of complex behaviors. A key limitation of these models is their slow inference speed,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Grayson Lee , Minh Bui , Shuzi Zhou , Yankai Li , Mo Chen , Ke Li

Mixture distributions with dynamic weights are an efficient way of modeling loss data characterized by heavy tails. However, maximum likelihood estimation of this family of models is difficult, mostly because of the need to evaluate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-11 Marco Bee

Most evaluations of autonomous driving policies under adversarial conditions are conducted in simulation, due to cost efficiency and the absence of physical risk. However, purely virtual testing fails to capture structural inconsistencies,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Adithya Mohan , Xujun Xie , Venkatesh Thirugnana Sambandham , Torsten Schön

Whereas diverse variations of diffusion models exist, extending the linear diffusion into a nonlinear diffusion process is investigated by very few works. The nonlinearity effect has been hardly understood, but intuitively, there would be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Dongjun Kim , Byeonghu Na , Se Jung Kwon , Dongsoo Lee , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon

Deep learning-based trajectory prediction models for autonomous driving often struggle with generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, sometimes performing worse than simple rule-based models. To address this limitation, we…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Jinning Li , Jiachen Li , Sangjae Bae , David Isele

While likelihood-based inference and its variants provide a statistically efficient and widely applicable approach to parametric inference, their application to models involving intractable likelihoods poses challenges. In this work, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-17 Francois-Xavier Briol , Alessandro Barp , Andrew B. Duncan , Mark Girolami

In order to learn the complex features of large spatio-temporal data, models with large parameter sets are often required. However, estimating a large number of parameters is often infeasible due to the computational and memory costs of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-02 Matthew Edwards , Stefano Castruccio , Dorit Hammerling

An emerging area of research aims to learn deep generative models with limited training data. Prior generative models like GANs and diffusion models require a lot of data to perform well, and their performance degrades when they are trained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Chirag Vashist , Shichong Peng , Ke Li

We investigate the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under a very general setup where the covariates can be high-dimensional, highly correlated, and can have sparse nonlinear effects on the propensity and outcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Jianqing Fan , Soham Jana , Sanjeev Kulkarni , Qishuo Yin

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 Ayush Bharti , Masha Naslidnyk , Oscar Key , Samuel Kaski , François-Xavier Briol

The performance of deep learning models is critically dependent on sophisticated optimization strategies. While existing optimizers have shown promising results, many rely on first-order Exponential Moving Average (EMA) techniques, which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Roi Peleg , Yair Smadar , Teddy Lazebnik , Assaf Hoogi

We propose a novel targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for quantiles in semiparametric missing data models. Our proposed estimator is locally efficient, $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal, and doubly robust, under…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-23 Iván Díaz

Distributed statistical inference has recently attracted immense attention. The asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), the one-step MLE, and the aggregated estimating equation estimator are established for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-14 Ping Zhou , Zhen Yu , Jingyi Ma , Maozai Tian , Ye Fan

Adaptive experimental designs have gained popularity in clinical trials and online experiments. Unlike traditional, fixed experimental designs, adaptive designs can dynamically adjust treatment randomization probabilities and other design…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Wenxin Zhang , Mark van der Laan

Recent advances in imitation learning, particularly using generative modelling techniques like diffusion, have enabled policies to capture complex multi-modal action distributions. However, these methods often require large datasets and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Krishan Rana , Robert Lee , David Pershouse , Niko Suenderhauf

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{\'e}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Song Liu , Takafumi Kanamori , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Yu Chen
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