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Conservative inference is a major concern in simulation-based inference. It has been shown that commonly used algorithms can produce overconfident posterior approximations. Balancing has empirically proven to be an effective way to mitigate…
Contrary to standard statistical models, unnormalised statistical models only specify the likelihood function up to a constant. While such models are natural and popular, the lack of normalisation makes inference much more difficult. Here…
In many applications of causal inference, the treatment received by one unit may influence the outcome of another, a phenomenon referred to as interference. Although there are several frameworks for conducting causal inference in the…
Latent variable models are widely used to account for unobserved determinants of economic behavior. This paper introduces a quasi-Bayes approach to nonparametrically estimate a large class of latent variable models. As an application, we…
Hierarchical learning models, such as mixture models and Bayesian networks, are widely employed for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering analysis. They consist of observable and hidden variables, which represent the given data…
Estimations and applications of factor models often rely on the crucial condition that the number of latent factors is consistently estimated, which in turn also requires that factors be relatively strong, data are stationary and weak…
Standard formulations of GANs, where a continuous function deforms a connected latent space, have been shown to be misspecified when fitting different classes of images. In particular, the generator will necessarily sample some low-quality…
Latent variable models have been playing a central role in psychometrics and related fields. In many modern applications, the inference based on latent variable models involves one or several of the following features: (1) the presence of…
Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this…
After general considerations about limits of theories and models, where small changes may imply large effects, we discuss three cases in galactic astrophysics illustrating how galactic dynamics models may become insufficient when previously…
Scatterplots can encode a third dimension by using additional channels like size or color (e.g. bubble charts). We explore a potential misinterpretation of trivariate scatterplots, which we call the weighted average illusion, where…
Parameter estimation and inference from complex survey samples typically focuses on global model parameters whose estimators have asymptotic properties, such as from fixed effects regression models. The central challenge is to both mitigate…
Latent representations are an important theme in modern machine learning. Any network training with the notion of locality introduces a latent geometry which we can analyze with the help of differential geometry, specifically information…
Factor structures or interactive effects are convenient devices to incorporate latent variables in panel data models. We consider fixed effect estimation of nonlinear panel single-index models with factor structures in the unobservables,…
Transient noise appearing in the data from gravitational-wave detectors frequently causes problems, such as instability of the detectors and overlapping or mimicking gravitational-wave signals. Because transient noise is considered to be…
Tremendous advances have been made in our understanding of the properties and evolution of complex networks. These advances were initially driven by information-poor empirical networks and theoretical analysis of unweighted and undirected…
Split-plot designs find wide applicability in multifactor experiments with randomization restrictions. Practical considerations often warrant the use of unbalanced designs. This paper investigates randomization based causal inference in…
When modeling network data using a latent position model, it is typical to assume that the nodes' positions are independently and identically distributed. However, this assumption implies the average node degree grows linearly with the…
Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of…
We introduce several methods for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding in marginal structural models; importantly we allow treatments to be discrete or continuous, static or time-varying. We consider three sensitivity models: a…