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A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…
This article introduces a causal discovery method to learn nonlinear relationships in a directed acyclic graph with correlated Gaussian errors due to confounding. First, we derive model identifiability under the sublinear growth assumption.…
When the causal relationship between X and Y is specified by a structural equation, the causal effect of X on Y is the expected rate of change of Y with respect to changes in X, when all other variables are kept fixed. This causal effect is…
We look more carefully at the modeling of causality using structural equations. It is clear that the structural equations can have a major impact on the conclusions we draw about causality. In particular, the choice of variables and their…
Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used in various disciplines to represent causal relationships among variables in complex systems. Unfortunately, the underlying causal structure is often unknown, and estimating it from data…
We propose a new definition of actual causes, using structural equations to model counterfactuals.We show that the definitions yield a plausible and elegant account ofcausation that handles well examples which have caused problems forother…
We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…
Causal models communicate our assumptions about causes and effects in real-world phe- nomena. Often the interest lies in the identification of the effect of an action which means deriving an expression from the observed probability…
Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data…
Causal inference has traditionally focused on interventions at the unit level. In many applications, however, the central question concerns the causal effects of connections between units, such as transportation links, social relationships,…
A mathematical model is identifiable if its parameters can be recovered from data. Here, we focus on a particular class of model, linear compartmental models, which are used to represent the transfer of substances in a system. We analyze…
We study the propagation of outliers in cyclic causal graphs with linear structural equations, tracing them back to one or several "root cause" nodes. We show that it is possible to identify a short list of potential root causes provided…
Causality plays a pivotal role in various fields of study. Based on the framework of causal graphical models, previous works have proposed identifying whether a variable is a cause or non-cause of a target in every Markov equivalent graph…
Linear structural equation models relate the components of a random vector using linear interdependencies and Gaussian noise. Each such model can be naturally associated with a mixed graph whose vertices correspond to the components of the…
We propose a novel formalism for describing Structural Causal Models (SCMs) as fixed-point problems on causally ordered variables, eliminating the need for Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), and establish the weakest known conditions for their…
A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an…
We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of…
Estimating the effect of intervention from observational data while accounting for confounding variables is a key task in causal inference. Oftentimes, the confounders are unobserved, but we have access to large amounts of additional…
We consider the problem of learning causal models from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models with latent variables. Without considering the effect of latent variables, one usually infers wrong causal…
Yield and quality improvement is of paramount importance to any manufacturing company. One of the ways of improving yield is through discovery of the root causal factors affecting yield. We propose the use of data-driven interpretable…