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In many situations across computational science and engineering, multiple computational models are available that describe a system of interest. These different models have varying evaluation costs and varying fidelities. Typically, a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-29 Benjamin Peherstorfer , Karen Willcox , Max Gunzburger

This paper proposes a new class of real-time optimization schemes to overcome system-model mismatch of uncertain processes. This work's novelty lies in integrating derivative-free optimization schemes and multi-fidelity Gaussian processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Panagiotis Petsagkourakis , Benoit Chachuat , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio-Chanona

Multi-fidelity machine learning methods address the accuracy-efficiency trade-off by integrating scarce, resource-intensive high-fidelity data with abundant but less accurate low-fidelity data. We propose a practical multi-fidelity strategy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Jiaxiang Yi , Ji Cheng , Miguel A. Bessa

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Alex A. Gorodetsky , Gianluca Geraci , Mike Eldred , John D. Jakeman

We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-21 Daniel Elfverson , Fredrik Hellman , Axel Målqvist

Existing variance reduction techniques used in stochastic simulations for rare event analysis still require a substantial number of model evaluations to estimate small failure probabilities. In the context of complex, nonlinear finite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Liuyun Xu , Seymour M. J. Spence

This paper presents an efficient multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization approach for analog circuit synthesis. The proposed method can significantly reduce the overall computational cost by fusing the simple but potentially inaccurate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-03 Shuhan Zhang , Wenlong Lyu , Fan Yang , Changhao Yan , Dian Zhou , Xuan Zeng , Xiangdong Hu

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods often rely on a preprocessing phase consisting of standard Monte Carlo sampling to estimate correlation coefficients between models of different fidelity to determine the weights and number of samples for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-06-29 Todd A. Oliver , Christopher S. Simmons , Robert D. Moser

Multi-fidelity optimization employs surrogate models that integrate information from varying levels of fidelity to guide efficient exploration of complex design spaces while minimizing the reliance on (expensive) high-fidelity objective…

In the context of optimization approaches to engineering applications, time-consuming simulations are often utilized which can be configured to deliver solutions for various levels of accuracy, commonly referred to as different fidelity…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Sander van Rijn , Sebastian Schmitt , Matthijs van Leeuwen , Thomas Bäck

In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity Bayesian experimental design framework to efficiently quantify the extreme-event statistics of an input-to-response (ItR) system with given input probability and expensive function evaluations. The…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-01-04 Xianliang Gong , Yulin Pan

In biomanufacturing, developing an accurate model to simulate the complex dynamics of bioprocesses is an important yet challenging task. This is partially due to the uncertainty associated with bioprocesses, high data acquisition cost, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Yuan Sun , Winton Nathan-Roberts , Tien Dung Pham , Ellen Otte , Uwe Aickelin

In system analysis and design optimization, multiple computational models are typically available to represent a given physical system. These models can be broadly classified as high-fidelity models, which provide highly accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Ruda Zhang , Negin Alemazkoor

Estimating the probability of failure for expensive simulations is a central task in reliability analysis for structural design, power grid design, and safety certification, among other areas. This work derives credible intervals on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Aleksei G. Sorokin , Vishwas Rao

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) is a variance reduction method that leverages a multi-fidelity ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy levels. Constructing an MFMC estimator with optimal variance requires knowledge of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Michael Stanley , Thomas Coons , Geoffrey Bomarito , Patrick Leser , Joshua Pribe , James Warner

Engineers widely use Gaussian process regression framework to construct surrogate models aimed to replace computationally expensive physical models while exploring design space. Thanks to Gaussian process properties we can use both samples…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-14 Evgeny Burnaev , Alexey Zaytsev

How can we efficiently gather information to optimize an unknown function, when presented with multiple, mutually dependent information sources with different costs? For example, when optimizing a robotic system, intelligently trading off…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-05 Jialin Song , Yuxin Chen , Yisong Yue

Challenges in multi-fidelity modeling relate to accuracy, uncertainty estimation and high-dimensionality. A novel additive structure is introduced in which the highest fidelity solution is written as a sum of the lowest fidelity solution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-09 Wei W. Xing , Akeel A. Shah , Peng Wang , Shandian Zhe Qian Fu , Robert. M. Kirby

Emulating the mapping between quantities of interest and their control parameters using surrogate models finds widespread application in engineering design, including in numerical optimization and uncertainty quantification. Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-02 S. Ashwin Renganathan , Kade Carlson

This paper develops mfEGRA, a multifidelity active learning method using data-driven adaptively refined surrogates for failure boundary location in reliability analysis. This work addresses the issue of prohibitive cost of reliability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Anirban Chaudhuri , Alexandre N. Marques , Karen E. Willcox