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Reconstructing the evolutionary history relating a collection of molecular sequences is the main subject of modern Bayesian phylogenetic inference. However, the commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be inefficient due to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-12 Tianyu Xie , Frederick A. Matsen , Marc A. Suchard , Cheng Zhang

Phylogenetic inference, grounded in molecular evolution models, is essential for understanding the evolutionary relationships in biological data. Accounting for the uncertainty of phylogenetic tree variables, which include tree topologies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Takahiro Mimori , Michiaki Hamada

We present VBPI-Mixtures, an algorithm designed to enhance the accuracy of phylogenetic posterior distributions, particularly for tree-topology and branch-length approximations. Despite the Variational Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Oskar Kviman , Ricky Molén , Jens Lagergren

Variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference (VBPI) provides a promising general variational framework for efficient estimation of phylogenetic posteriors. However, the current diagonal Lognormal branch length approximation would…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-02 Cheng Zhang

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is currently done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simple proposal mechanisms. This hinders exploration efficiency and often requires long runs to deliver accurate posterior estimates. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Cheng Zhang , Frederick A. Matsen

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 David M. Blei , Alp Kucukelbir , Jon D. McAuliffe

Approximating complex probability densities is a core problem in modern statistics. In this paper, we introduce the concept of Variational Inference (VI), a popular method in machine learning that uses optimization techniques to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Ankush Ganguly , Samuel W. F. Earp

Bayesian phylogenetics is vital for understanding evolutionary dynamics, and requires accurate and efficient approximation of posterior distributions over trees. In this work, we develop a variational Bayesian approach for ultrametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-16 Evan Sidrow , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Lloyd T. Elliott

Probability estimation of tree topologies is one of the fundamental tasks in phylogenetic inference. The recently proposed subsplit Bayesian networks (SBNs) provide a powerful probabilistic graphical model for tree topology probability…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-10 Tianyu Xie , Musu Yuan , Minghua Deng , Cheng Zhang

Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Blake Hansen , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco , Massimiliano Russo , Roberta De Vito

In Bayesian phylogenetics, our goal is to estimate the posterior distribution over phylogenetic trees. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are widely used to approximate the phylogenetic posterior distributions. For large-scale sequence data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Wentao Yu , Shijia Wang

Phylogenetics, the inference of evolutionary trees from molecular sequence data such as DNA, is an enterprise that yields valuable evolutionary understanding of many biological systems. Bayesian phylogenetic algorithms, which approximate a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-10-27 Vu Dinh , Aaron E. Darling , Frederick A. Matsen

Density estimation is essential for generative modeling, particularly with the rise of modern neural networks. While existing methods capture complex data distributions, they often lack interpretability and uncertainty quantification.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Lu Xu , Tsai Hor Chan , Kwok Fai Lam , Lequan Yu , Guosheng Yin

Phylogenetic inference, the task of reconstructing how related sequences evolved from common ancestors, is a central objective in evolutionary genomics. The current state-of-the-art methods exploit probabilistic models of sequence evolution…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-19 Luc Blassel , Noémie Sauvage , Pierre Barrat-Charlaix , Bastien Boussau , Nicolas Lartillot , Laurent Jacob

As whole genomes become widely available, maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic methods are demonstrating their limits in meeting the escalating computational demands. Conversely, distance-based phylogenetic methods are efficient,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-02-07 Matthew J. Penn , Neil Scheidwasser , Mark P. Khurana , Christl A. Donnelly , David A. Duchêne , Samir Bhatt

Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Cheng Zhang , Judith Butepage , Hedvig Kjellstrom , Stephan Mandt

BayesPy is an open-source Python software package for performing variational Bayesian inference. It is based on the variational message passing framework and supports conjugate exponential family models. By removing the tedious task of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-08 Jaakko Luttinen

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification, but accurate posterior sampling with MCMC can be computationally prohibitive for modern applications. Variational inference (VI) offers a scalable alternative and often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Laura Battaglia , Stefano Cortinovis , Chris Holmes , David T. Frazier , Jack Jewson

Phylogenetic trees elucidate evolutionary relationships among species, but phylogenetic inference remains challenging due to the complexity of combining continuous (branch lengths) and discrete parameters (tree topology). Traditional Markov…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-30 ChenRui Duan , Zelin Zang , Siyuan Li , Yongjie Xu , Stan Z. Li

We propose stepwise variational inference (VI) with vine copulas: a universal VI procedure that combines vine copulas with a novel stepwise estimation procedure of the variational parameters. Vine copulas consist of a nested sequence of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-25 Elisabeth Griesbauer , Leiv Rønneberg , Arnoldo Frigessi , Claudia Czado , Ingrid Hobæk Haff
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