Related papers: Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparamet…
Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are…
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
In this paper, we assess whether using non-linear dimension reduction techniques pays off for forecasting inflation in real-time. Several recent methods from the machine learning literature are adopted to map a large dimensional dataset…
In this paper, we are interested to focus on the critical periods in the economy which are characterized by large fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators. To capture unusual and large fluctuations of inflation and unemployment, we…
In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…
We construct explicit models of multi-field inflation in which the primordial metric fluctuations do not necessarily obey Gaussian statistics. These models are realizations of mechanisms in which non-Gaussianity is first generated by a…
This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an…
The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…
We revisit inflation with non-canonical scalar fields by applying deformed-steepness exponential potentials. We show that the resulting scenario can lead to inflationary observables, and in particular to scalar spectral index and…
The presence of multiple fields during inflation might seed a detectable amount of non-Gaussianity in the curvature perturbations, which in turn becomes observable in present data sets like the cosmic microwave background (CMB) or the large…
This is a pedagogical review on primordial non-Gaussianities from inflation models. We introduce formalisms and techniques that are used to compute such quantities. We review different mechanisms which can generate observable large…
There has been much recent discussion, and some confusion, regarding the use of existing observational data to estimate the likelihood that next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiments might detect a nonzero…
We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…
Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply than can result in price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. The objectives of this paper were to develop economic models to (1)…
We study a nonminimal derivative inflationary model in the presence of the Gauss-Bonnet term. To have a complete treatment of the model, we consider a general form of the nonminimal derivative function and also the Gauss-Bonnet coupling…
We consider inflation within the context of what is arguably the simplest non-metric extension of Einstein gravity. There non-metricity is described by a single graviscalar field with a non-minimal kinetic coupling to the inflaton field…
This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth,…
In this paper, we investigate various inflation models in the context of the no-boundary proposal. We propose that a good inflation model should satisfy three conditions: observational constraints, plausible initial conditions, and…
Both inflation and unemployment inflict social losses. When a tradeoff exists between the two, what would be the best combination of inflation and unemployment? A well known approach in economics to address this question consists to write…
We compare forecasts of United States inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to predictions made by simple statistical techniques. In nowcasting, economic expertise is persuasive. When projecting beyond the current…