Related papers: Superspreading and Heterogeneity in Epidemics
We investigate the information-theoretical limits of inference tasks in epidemic spreading on graphs in the thermodynamic limit. The typical inference tasks consist in computing observables of the posterior distribution of the epidemic…
We study spreading on networks where the contact dynamics between the nodes is governed by a random process and where the inter-contact time distribution may differ from the exponential. We consider a process of imperfect spreading, where…
Epidemic spread in single-host systems strongly depends on the population's contact network. However, little is known regarding the spread of epidemics across networks representing populations of multiple hosts. We explored cross-species…
In presence of long range dispersal, epidemics spread in spatially disconnected regions known as clusters. Here, we characterize exactly their statistical properties in a solvable model, in both the supercritical (outbreak) and critical…
In many complex systems, the dynamic processes that take place on a network and the changes in the network topology are intertwined. Here, we propose a model of coevolutionary dynamics of information spreading which is accompanied with link…
The mathematical model of the spread of the epidemic is developed, which considers fluctuations in the number of human social contacts. The model is based on the logistic equation. The oscillation in the number of social contacts within one…
Pathogen introduction in plant communities can cause serious impact and biodiversity losses that may take long time to manage and restore. Effective control of epidemic spreading in the wild is a problem of paramount importance, because of…
The compartmental models used to study epidemic spreading often assume the same susceptibility for all individuals, and are therefore, agnostic about the effects that differences in susceptibility can have on epidemic spreading. Here we…
We study numerically the variability of the outbreak of diseases on complex networks. We use a SI model to simulate the disease spreading at short times, in homogeneous and in scale-free networks. In both cases, we study the effect of…
We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior…
Yet often neglected, dynamical interdependencies between concomitant contagion processes can alter their intrinsic equilibria and bifurcations. A particular case of interest for disease control is the emergence of explosive transitions in…
Especially in lattice structured populations, homogeneous mixing represents an inadequate assumption. Various improvements upon the ordinary pair approximation based on a number of assumptions concerning the higher-order correlations have…
We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…
The numerous expanding online social networks offer fast channels for misinformation spreading, which could have a serious impact on socioeconomic systems. Researchers across multiple areas have paid attention to this issue with a view of…
Infectious disease modeling is used to forecast epidemics and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Although the core assumption of mass-action models of homogeneously mixed population is often implausible, they are…
We investigate the effects of risk perception in a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that the perception of the risk of being infected depends on the fraction of neighbors that are ill. The effect of this factor is to decrease…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we…
The study proposes a modeling framework for investigating the disease dynamics with adaptive human behavior during a disease outbreak, considering the impacts of both local observations and global information. One important application…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…