Related papers: IBIA: Bayesian Inference via Incremental Build-Inf…

The number of probability distributions required to populate a conditional probability table (CPT) in a Bayesian network, grows exponentially with the number of parent-nodes associated with that table. If the table is to be populated…

We propose an efficient method for Bayesian network inference in models with functional dependence. We generalize the multiplicative factorization method originally designed by Takikawa and D Ambrosio(1999) FOR models WITH independence OF…

Many of the causal discovery methods rely on the faithfulness assumption to guarantee asymptotic correctness. However, the assumption can be approximately violated in many ways, leading to sub-optimal solutions. Although there is a line of…

The use of ensembles of neural networks (NNs) for the quantification of predictive uncertainty is widespread. However, the current justification is intuitive rather than analytical. This work proposes one minor modification to the normal…

The automation of posterior inference in Bayesian data analysis has enabled experts and nonexperts alike to use more sophisticated models, engage in faster exploratory modeling and analysis, and ensure experimental reproducibility. However,…

Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Inferring a decision tree from a given dataset is one of the classic problems in machine learning. This problem consists of buildings, from a labelled dataset, a tree such that each node corresponds to a class and a path between the tree…

Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) represent a compact yet powerful framework for understanding multivariate time-series data. Given complete data, parameters and structure can be estimated efficiently in closed-form. However, if…

Calibrating mathematical models of biological processes is essential for achieving predictive accuracy and gaining mechanistic insight. However, this task remains challenging due to limited and noisy data, significant biological…

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a simulation-based likelihood-free method applicable to both model selection and parameter estimation. ABC parameter estimation requires the ability to forward simulate datasets from a candidate…

Learning a Bayesian networks with bounded treewidth is important for reducing the complexity of the inferences. We present a novel anytime algorithm (k-MAX) method for this task, which scales up to thousands of variables. Through extensive…

Markov Networks are widely used through out computer vision and machine learning. An important subclass are the Associative Markov Networks which are used in a wide variety of applications. For these networks a good approximate minimum cost…

The use of Bayesian methods in large-scale data settings is attractive because of the rich hierarchical models, uncertainty quantification, and prior specification they provide. Standard Bayesian inference algorithms are computationally…

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is currently done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simple proposal mechanisms. This hinders exploration efficiency and often requires long runs to deliver accurate posterior estimates. In this paper,…

This paper deals with the following problem: modify a Bayesian network to satisfy a given set of probability constraints by only change its conditional probability tables, and the probability distribution of the resulting network should be…

Causally insufficient structures (models with latent or hidden variables, or with confounding etc.) of joint probability distributions have been subject of intense study not only in statistics, but also in various AI systems. In AI, belief…

Fault tree analysis is a well-known technique in reliability engineering and risk assessment, which supports decision-making processes and the management of complex systems. Traditionally, fault tree (FT) models are built manually together…

Large language models (LLMs) have become pivotal in recent research. However, during the inference process, LLMs still require substantial resources. In this paper, we propose CliqueParcel, a method designed to improve the efficiency of…

We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be…