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We introduce a new formulation of structural causal models for extremes, called the extremal structural causal model (eSCM). Unlike conventional structural causal models, where randomness is governed by a probability distribution, eSCMs use…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Shuyang Bai , Fei Fang , Tiandong Wang

There are several opinion dynamics models where extremism is defined as part of their characteristics. However, the way extremism is implemented in each model does not correspond to equivalent definitions. While some models focus on one…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-01 André C. R. Martins

Nonparametric regression quantiles obtained by inverting a kernel estimator of the conditional distribution of the response are long established in statistics. Attention has been, however, restricted to ordinary quantiles staying away from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-19 Abdelaati Daouia , Laurent Gardes , Stéphane Girard

Currently available models for spatial extremes suffer either from inflexibility in the dependence structures that they can capture, lack of scalability to high dimensions, or in most cases, both of these. We present an approach to spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-17 Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Jonathan Tawn

The covXtreme software provides functionality for estimation of marginal and conditional extreme value models, non-stationary with respect to covariates, and environmental design contours. Generalised Pareto (GP) marginal models of peaks…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-26 Ross Towe , Emma Ross , David Randell , Philip Jonathan

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-16 Evandro Konzen , Claudia Neves , Philip Jonathan

Quantile regression is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analyzing the impact of a set of regressors on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal quantile regression, or quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernandez-Val

A central issue in the theory of extreme values focuses on suitable conditions such that the well-known results for the limiting distributions of the maximum of i.i.d. sequences can be applied to stationary ones. In this context, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-07 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

Inference over tails is performed by applying only the results of extreme value theory. Whilst such theory is well defined and flexible enough in the univariate case, multivariate inferential methods often require the imposition of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-11 Manuele Leonelli , Dani Gamerman

The study of geometric extremes, where extremal dependence properties are inferred from the deterministic limiting shapes of scaled sample clouds, provides an exciting approach to modelling the extremes of multivariate data. These shapes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-16 Callum J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , Reetam Majumder , Jordan Richards

We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-11 Miguel de Carvalho , Soraia Pereira , Paula Pereira , Patrícia de Zea Bermudez

We address the estimation of quantiles from heavy-tailed distributions when functional covariate information is available and in the case where the order of the quantile converges to one as the sample size increases. Such "extreme"…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-04-04 L. Gardes , S. Girard , A. Lekina

Graphical models in extremes have emerged as a diverse and quickly expanding research area in extremal dependence modeling. They allow for parsimonious statistical methodology and are particularly suited for enforcing sparsity in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Sebastian Engelke , Manuel Hentschel , Michaël Lalancette , Frank Röttger

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-17 Thomas Lugrin , Anthony C. Davison , Jonathan A. Tawn

There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-04 Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers , Michal Warchol

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-20 J. L. Wadsworth , J. A. Tawn

We propose a new method for estimating the extreme quantiles for a function of several dependent random variables. In contrast to the conventional approach based on extreme value theory, we do not impose the condition that the tail of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-25 Jinguo Gong , Yadong Li , Liang Peng , Qiwei Yao

Conditional diffusion models serve as the foundation of modern image synthesis and find extensive application in fields like computational biology and reinforcement learning. In these applications, conditional diffusion models incorporate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Hengyu Fu , Zhuoran Yang , Mengdi Wang , Minshuo Chen

This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify the directional dependence of extreme events between two variables. The proposed approach is designed to capture asymmetric tail dependence by studying conditional tail expectations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Matthieu Garcin , Maxime L. D. Nicolas