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To estimate the causal effect of an intervention, researchers need to identify a control group that represents what might have happened to the treatment group in the absence of that intervention. This is challenging without a randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Robert Pickett , Jennifer Hill , Sarah Cowan

Many statistical estimands of interest (e.g., in regression or causality) are functions of the joint distribution of multiple random variables. But in some applications, data is not available that measures all random variables on each…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Yicong Jiang , Lucas Janson

Controlled variable selection is an important analytical step in various scientific fields, such as brain imaging or genomics. In these high-dimensional data settings, considering too many variables leads to poor models and high costs,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Alexandre Blain , Bertrand Thirion , Olivier Grisel , Pierre Neuvial

This paper aims to partially identify the distributional treatment effects (DTEs) that depend on the unknown joint distribution of treated and untreated potential outcomes. We construct the DTE bounds using panel data and allow individuals…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-08 Heshani Madigasekara , D. S. Poskitt , Lina Zhang , Xueyan Zhao

Counterfactual explanations are increasingly proposed as interpretable mechanisms to achieve algorithmic recourse. However, current counterfactual techniques for time series classification are predominantly designed with static data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Emmanuel C. Chukwu , Rianne M. Schouten , Monique Tabak , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Synthetic control (SC) methods are commonly used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in panel data settings. An SC is a weighted average of control units built to match the treated unit, with weights typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xu Shi , Kendrick Li , Wang Miao , Mengtong Hu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Despite attractive theoretical guarantees and practical successes, Predictive Interval (PI) given by Conformal Prediction (CP) may not reflect the uncertainty of a given model. This limitation arises from CP methods using a constant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-01 Salim I. Amoukou , Nicolas J. B Brunel

Offline multi-agent reinforcement learning is challenging due to the coupling effect of both distribution shift issue common in offline setting and the high dimension issue common in multi-agent setting, making the action…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-25 Jianzhun Shao , Yun Qu , Chen Chen , Hongchang Zhang , Xiangyang Ji

Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Chirag Nagpal , Mononito Goswami , Keith Dufendach , Artur Dubrawski

In causality, estimating the effect of a treatment without confounding inference remains a major issue because requires to assess the outcome in both case with and without treatment. Not being able to observe simultaneously both of them,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-09 Celine Beji , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif

The aim of this paper is to develop and analyze numerical schemes for approximately solving the backward problem of subdiffusion equation involving a fractional derivative in time with order $\alpha\in(0,1)$. After using quasi-boundary…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-28 Zhengqi Zhang , Zhi Zhou

We propose a nonparametric quantile regression method using deep neural networks with a rectified linear unit penalty function to avoid quantile crossing. This penalty function is computationally feasible for enforcing non-crossing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-20 Wenlu Tang , Guohao Shen , Yuanyuan Lin , Jian Huang

We study counterfactual prediction under assignment bias and propose a mathematically grounded, information-theoretic approach that removes treatment-covariate dependence without adversarial training. Starting from a bound that links the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Shiqin Tang , Rong Feng , Shuxin Zhuang , Youzhi Zhang , Hongzong Li

In this work we investigate an inverse problem of recovering a time-dependent potential in a semilinear subdiffusion model from an integral measurement of the solution over the domain. The model involves the Djrbashian--Caputo fractional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Bangti Jin , Kwancheol Shin , Zhi Zhou

This paper studies non-separable models with a continuous treatment when the dimension of the control variables is high and potentially larger than the effective sample size. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-07 Liangjun Su , Takuya Ura , Yichong Zhang

Quantile Factor Models (QFM) represent a new class of factor models for high-dimensional panel data. Unlike Approximate Factor Models (AFM), where only location-shifting factors can be extracted, QFM also allow to recover unobserved factors…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-09-24 Liang Chen , Juan Jose Dolado , Jesus Gonzalo

Counterfactual evaluation of novel treatment assignment functions (e.g., advertising algorithms and recommender systems) is one of the most crucial causal inference problems for practitioners. Traditionally, randomized controlled trials…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Daphné Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Out of the participants in a randomized experiment with anticipated heterogeneous treatment effects, is it possible to identify which subjects have a positive treatment effect? While subgroup analysis has received attention, claims about…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Boyan Duan , Larry Wasserman , Aaditya Ramdas