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We propose a counterfactual Kaplan-Meier estimator that incorporates exogenous covariates and unobserved heterogeneity of unrestricted dimensionality in duration models with random censoring. Under some regularity conditions, we establish…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-02-25 Jiun-Hua Su

The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low-dimensional parameters with high-dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-05 Cun-Hui Zhang , Stephanie S. Zhang

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Ruth H. Keogh , Nan van Geloven

In this work, we consider causal inference in various high-dimensional treatment settings, including for single multi-valued treatments and vector treatments with binary or continuous components, when the number of treatments can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Patrick Kramer , Edward H. Kennedy , Isaac M. Opper

Counterfactual explanations for machine learning models are used to find minimal interventions to the feature values such that the model changes the prediction to a different output or a target output. A valid counterfactual explanation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-23 Shravan Kumar Sajja , Sumanta Mukherjee , Satyam Dwivedi

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-04 Steven G. Xu , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich

Random effects meta-analysis is a widely applied methodology to synthetize research findings of studies in a specific scientific question. Besides estimating the mean effect, an important aim of the meta-analysis is to summarize the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-28 Peter Matrai , Tamas Koi , Zoltan Sipos , Nelli Farkas

Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Kwangho Kim , Jisu Kim , Edward H. Kennedy

This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of counterfactual policies on the unconditional quantiles of an outcome variable. For a given counterfactual policy, we obtain identified sets for the effect of both marginal and global…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-07 Julian Martinez-Iriarte

Clinical risk prediction is a valuable tool for guiding healthcare interventions toward those most likely to benefit. Yet, evaluating the pairing of a risk prediction model with an intervention using randomized controlled trials presents…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-31 Valerie Odeh-Couvertier , Gabriel Zayas-Caban , Brian Patterson , Amy Cochran

Weighting methods are essential tools for estimating causal effects in observational studies, with the goal of balancing pre-treatment covariates across treatment groups. Traditional approaches pursue this objective indirectly, for example,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Diptanil Santra , Guanhua Chen , Chan Park

Estimates of finite population cumulativedistribution functions (CDFs) and quantiles are critical forpolicy-making, resource allocation, and public health planning. For instance, federal finance agencies may require accurate estimates of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-31 Jeremy Flood , Sayed Mostafa

Counterfactual inference enables clinicians to ask "what if" questions about patient outcomes, but standard methods assume feature independence and simultaneous modifiability -- assumptions violated by longitudinal clinical data. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Jingya Cheng , Alaleh Azhir , Jiazi Tian , Hossein Estiri

Counterfactual analysis is intuitively performed by humans on a daily basis eg. "What should I have done differently to get the loan approved?". Such counterfactual questions also steer the formulation of scientific hypotheses. More…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Juliane Weilbach , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir , Martin Fraenzle

This work is concerned with numerically recovering multiple parameters simultaneously in the subdiffusion model from one single lateral measurement on a part of the boundary, while in an incompletely known medium. We prove that the boundary…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-10 Siyu Cen , Bangti Jin , Yikan Liu , Zhi Zhou

Synthetic control methods (SCMs) are a canonical approach used to estimate treatment effects from panel data in the internet economy. We shed light on a frequently overlooked but ubiquitous assumption made in SCMs of "overlap": a treated…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-26 Daniel Ngo , Keegan Harris , Anish Agarwal , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Competing risks data arise frequently in clinical trials. When the proportional subdistribution hazard assumption is violated or two cumulative incidence function (CIF) curves cross, rather than comparing the overall treatment effects,…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-22 Jinbao Chen , Yawen Hou , Zheng Chen

To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Hongxiang Qiu , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Edgar Dobriban , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Pedro Sanchez , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

We propose a framework for analyzing the sensitivity of counterfactuals to parametric assumptions about the distribution of latent variables in structural models. In particular, we derive bounds on counterfactuals as the distribution of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-26 Timothy Christensen , Benjamin Connault