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In the problem of aggregation, the aim is to combine a given class of base predictors to achieve predictions nearly as accurate as the best one. In this flexible framework, no assumption is made on the structure of the class or the nature…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-30 Jaouad Mourtada , Tomas Vaškevičius , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

There is growing interest in developing statistical estimators that achieve exponential concentration around a population target even when the data distribution has heavier than exponential tails. More recent activity has focused on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-22 Jakwang Kim , Jiyoung Park , Anirban Bhattacharya

Let $\mathcal{F}$ be a class of measurable functions $f:S\mapsto [0,1]$ defined on a probability space $(S,\mathcal{A},P)$. Given a sample (X_1,...,X_n) of i.i.d. random variables taking values in S with common distribution P, let P_n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Vladimir Koltchinskii

Estimating extreme quantiles is an important task in many applications, including financial risk management and climatology. More important than estimating the quantile itself is to insure zero coverage error, which implies the quantile…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-08 Douglas E. Johnston

We study the sample complexity of the best-case Empirical Risk Minimizer in the setting of stochastic convex optimization. We show that there exists an instance in which the sample size is linear in the dimension, learning is possible, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Tal Burla , Roi Livni

Known Bernstein-type upper bounds on the tail probabilities for sums of independent zero-mean sub-exponential random variables are improved in several ways at once. The new upper bounds have a certain optimality property.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-15 Iosif Pinelis

This paper is devoted to the problem of determining the concentration bounds that are achievable in non-parametric regression. We consider the setting where features are supported on a bounded subset of $\mathbb{R}^d$, the regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-02 Anna Ben-Hamou , Arnaud Guyader

There is accumulating evidence in the literature that stability of learning algorithms is a key characteristic that permits a learning algorithm to generalize. Despite various insightful results in this direction, there seems to be an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-10 Karim Abou-Moustafa , Csaba Szepesvari

We consider the problem of stochastic convex optimization with exp-concave losses using Empirical Risk Minimization in a convex class. Answering a question raised in several prior works, we provide a $O( d / n + \log( 1 / \delta) / n )$…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Nikita Puchkin , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

One of the main open problems in the theory of multi-category margin classification is the form of the optimal dependency of a guaranteed risk on the number C of categories, the sample size m and the margin parameter gamma. From a practical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-04 Khadija Musayeva , Fabien Lauer , Yann Guermeur

This paper considers batch Reinforcement Learning (RL) with general value function approximation. Our study investigates the minimal assumptions to reliably estimate/minimize Bellman error, and characterizes the generalization performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-26 Yaqi Duan , Chi Jin , Zhiyuan Li

We show a Talagrand-type concentration inequality for Multi-Task Learning (MTL), using which we establish sharp excess risk bounds for MTL in terms of distribution- and data-dependent versions of the Local Rademacher Complexity (LRC). We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-13 Niloofar Yousefi , Yunwen Lei , Marius Kloft , Mansooreh Mollaghasemi , Georgios Anagnostopoulos

In this work, we study the weighted empirical risk minimization (weighted ERM) schema, in which an additional data-dependent weight function is incorporated when the empirical risk function is being minimized. We show that under a general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yikai Zhang , Jiahe Lin , Fengpei Li , Songzhu Zheng , Anant Raj , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka

Recently there has been a surge of interest in understanding implicit regularization properties of iterative gradient-based optimization algorithms. In this paper, we study the statistical guarantees on the excess risk achieved by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-28 Tomas Vaškevičius , Varun Kanade , Patrick Rebeschini

The best arm identification problem requires identifying the best alternative (i.e., arm) in active experimentation using the smallest number of experiments (i.e., arm pulls), which is crucial for cost-efficient and timely decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Kapilan Balagopalan , Tuan Ngo Nguyen , Yao Zhao , Kwang-Sung Jun

In general, obtaining the exact steady-state distribution of queue lengths is not feasible. Therefore, we establish bounds for the tail probabilities of queue lengths. Specifically, we examine queueing systems under Heavy-Traffic (HT)…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Prakirt Raj Jhunjhunwala , Daniela Hurtado-Lange , Siva Theja Maguluri

Despite the ubiquitous use of stochastic optimization algorithms in machine learning, the precise impact of these algorithms and their dynamics on generalization performance in realistic non-convex settings is still poorly understood. While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-12 Liam Hodgkinson , Umut Şimşekli , Rajiv Khanna , Michael W. Mahoney

We study stochastic convex optimization (SCO) with heavy-tailed gradients under pure $\varepsilon$-differential privacy (DP). Instead of assuming a bound on the worst-case Lipschitz parameter of the loss, we assume only a bounded $k$-th…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Andrew Lowy

We derive a new asymptotic expansion for the global excess risk of a local-$k$-nearest neighbour classifier, where the choice of $k$ may depend upon the test point. This expansion elucidates conditions under which the dominant contribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-21 Timothy I. Cannings , Thomas B. Berrett , Richard J. Samworth

Classical (or ``global'') Bernstein theory establishes sharp control on entire functions of exponential type that are bounded and real-valued on the real axis. We localize some of this theory to rectangular regions $\{ x+iy: x \in I, 0 \leq…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Terence Tao