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Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-23 Christopher J. Moore , Jonathan R. Gair

We tackle modelling and inference for variable selection in regression problems with many predictors and many responses. We focus on detecting hotspots, i.e., predictors associated with several responses. Such a task is critical in…

Spatial data are often derived from multiple sources (e.g. satellites, in-situ sensors, survey samples) with different supports, but associated with the same properties of a spatial phenomenon of interest. It is common for predictors to…

In landmark localization, due to ambiguities in defining their exact position, landmark annotations may suffer from large observer variabilities, which result in uncertain annotations. To model the annotation ambiguities of the training…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Franz Thaler , Christian Payer , Martin Urschler , Darko Stern

Visualizing the uncertainty of ensemble simulations is challenging due to the large size and multivariate and temporal features of ensemble data sets. One popular approach to studying the uncertainty of ensembles is analyzing the positional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Mengjiao Han , Tushar M. Athawale , David Pugmire , Chris R. Johnson

Accurate assessment of systematic uncertainties is an increasingly vital task in physics studies, where large, high-dimensional datasets, like those collected at the Large Hadron Collider, hold the key to new discoveries. Common approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Alexis Romero , Kyle Cranmer , Daniel Whiteson

Unstructured data from diverse sources, such as social media and aerial imagery, can provide valuable up-to-date information for intelligent situation assessment. Mining these different information sources could bring major benefits to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-08 Edwin Simpson , Steven Reece , Stephen J. Roberts

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Minsuk Shin , Young Lee , Jun S. Liu

Evaluating structural uncertainties associated with seismic imaging and target horizons can be of critical importance for decision-making related to oil and gas exploration and production. An important breakthrough for industrial…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-07-28 Jérémie Messud , Patrice Guillaume , Gilles Lambaré

Public health data are often spatially dependent, but standard spatial regression methods can suffer from bias and invalid inference when the independent variable is associated with spatially-correlated residuals. This could occur if, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-10 Nate Wiecha , Jane A. Hoppin , Brian J. Reich

Occupancy grids encode for hot spots on a map that is represented by a two dimensional grid of disjoint cells. The problem is to recursively update the probability that each cell in the grid is occupied, based on a sequence of sensor…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-13 Christopher Robbiano , Edwin K. P. Chong , Mahmood R. Azimi-Sadjadi , Louis L. Scharf , Ali Pezeshki

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Past research on pedestrian trajectory forecasting mainly focused on deterministic predictions which provide only point estimates of future states. These future estimates can help an autonomous vehicle plan its trajectory and avoid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-16 Anshul Nayak , Azim Eskandarian , Zachary Doerzaph

Geostatistical modeling for continuous point-referenced data has been extensively applied to neuroimaging because it produces efficient and valid statistical inference. However, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), a neuroimaging characterizing…

Accurate, fine-grained poverty maps remain scarce across much of the Global South. While Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) provide high-quality socioeconomic data, their spatial coverage is limited and reported coordinates are randomly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Markus B. Pettersson , Adel Daoud

In this paper we consider estimation of unobserved components in state space models using a dynamic factor approach to incorporate auxiliary information from high-dimensional data sources. We apply the methodology to unemployment estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-02-17 Caterina Schiavoni , Franz Palm , Stephan Smeekes , Jan van den Brakel

Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…

Ultra-wideband (UWB) time difference of arrival(TDOA)-based localization has emerged as a low-cost and scalable indoor positioning solution. However, in cluttered environments, the performance of UWB TDOA-based localization deteriorates due…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Wenda Zhao , Abhishek Goudar , Mingliang Tang , Xinyuan Qiao , Angela P. Schoellig

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Sanyam Kapoor , Wesley J. Maddox , Pavel Izmailov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Leveraging multivariate spatial dependence to improve the precision of estimates using American Community Survey data and other sample survey data has been a topic of recent interest among data-users and federal statistical agencies. One…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-19 Ryan Janicki , Andrew M. Raim , Scott H. Holan , Jerry Maples