Related papers: Cutting feedback and modularized analyses in gener…

In recent years, inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning has attracted significant attention. Tempered or generalized posterior distributions are frequently employed as direct and effective solutions. Nonetheless, the underlying mechanisms…

Modern imaging techniques heavily rely on Bayesian statistical models to address difficult image reconstruction and restoration tasks. This paper addresses the objective evaluation of such models in settings where ground truth is…

We study Bayesian approaches to causal inference via propensity score regression. Much of the Bayesian literature on propensity score methods have relied on approaches that cannot be viewed as fully Bayesian in the context of conventional…

In an ideal setting for Bayesian agents, a perfect description of the rules of the environment (i.e., the objective observation model) is available, allowing them to reason through the Bayesian posterior to update their beliefs in an…

Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…

We propose a general framework for obtaining probabilistic solutions to PDE-based inverse problems. Bayesian methods are attractive for uncertainty quantification but assume knowledge of the likelihood model or data generation process. This…

The Bayesian approach provides powerful methods for variable selection. The ability to incorporate sparsity through prior beliefs and account for parameter uncertainty allows Bayesian variable selection to consistently identify which of the…

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

Virtually any model we use in machine learning to make predictions does not perfectly represent reality. So, most of the learning happens under model misspecification. In this work, we present a novel analysis of the generalization…

Neural density estimators have proven remarkably powerful in performing efficient simulation-based Bayesian inference in various research domains. In particular, the BayesFlow framework uses a two-step approach to enable amortized parameter…

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

High dimensional statistics deals with the challenge of extracting structured information from complex model settings. Compared with the growing number of frequentist methodologies, there are rather few theoretically optimal Bayes methods…

Full Bayesian posteriors are rarely analytically tractable, which is why real-world Bayesian inference heavily relies on approximate techniques. Approximations generally differ from the true posterior and require diagnostic tools to assess…

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) methods are widely used for parameter estimation in complex models where evaluating the likelihood is challenging but generating simulations is relatively straightforward. However, these methods…

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Compared to mean regression and quantile regression, the literature on modal regression is very sparse. A unifying framework for Bayesian modal regression is proposed, based on a family of unimodal distributions indexed by the mode, along…

Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…