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We introduce a novel deep learning framework based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict galactic cosmic-ray spectra on a one-day-ahead basis by leveraging historical solar activity data, overcoming limitations inherent in…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-01-13 Yi-Lun Du , Xiaojian Song , Xi Luo

A key challenge for computationally intensive state-of-the-art Earth System models is to distinguish global warming signals from interannual variability. Here we introduce DLESyM, a parsimonious deep learning model that accurately simulates…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-21 Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay , Bowen Liu , Dale Durran , Zihui Liu , Zachary I. Espinosa , Raul Moreno , Matthias Karlbauer

Numerical weather forecasting using high-resolution physical models often requires extensive computational resources on supercomputers, which diminishes their wide usage in most real-life applications. As a remedy, applying deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Selim Furkan Tekin , Arda Fazla , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), an extreme climate phenomenon, pose significant challenges to marine ecosystems and industries, with their frequency and intensity increasing due to climate change. This study introduces an integrated deep learning…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-09 Ding Ning , Varvara Vetrova , Yun Sing Koh , Karin R. Bryan

Traditionally, 1D models based on scaling laws have been used to parameterized convective heat transfer rocks in the interior of terrestrial planets like Earth, Mars, Mercury and Venus to tackle the computational bottleneck of high-fidelity…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2021-11-08 Siddhant Agarwal , Nicola Tosi , Pan Kessel , Doris Breuer , Grégoire Montavon

We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-31 Krzysztof Chalupka , Tobias Bischoff , Pietro Perona , Frederick Eberhardt

Forecasting time series with extreme events has been a challenging and prevalent research topic, especially when the time series data are affected by complicated uncertain factors, such as is the case in hydrologic prediction. Diverse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Yanhong Li , Jack Xu , David C. Anastasiu

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-15 Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan , Josef Ludescher , Agarwal Ankit , Xiaosong Chen , Armin Bunde , Jurgen Kurths , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

This paper explores the potential of a hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning (ML) with conventional physics-based modeling for weather prediction beyond the medium range. It extends the work of Arcomano et al. (2022),…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-28 Dhruvit Patel , Troy Arcomano , Brian Hunt , Istvan Szunyogh , Edward Ott

Lightning plays a crucial role in the Earth's climate system, yet existing parameterizations for use in forecasting and earth system models show room for improvement in capturing spatial and temporal variations in its frequency. This study…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-15 Randall Jones , Joel A. Thornton , Chris J. Wright , Robert Holzworth

Many real-world applications rely on land surface temperature (LST) data at high spatiotemporal resolution. In complex urban areas, LST exhibits significant variations, fluctuating dramatically within and across city blocks. Landsat…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Shengjie Liu , Siqin Wang , Lu Zhang

Rainy years and dry years in SE Australia are known to be correlated with sea surface temperatures in the specific areas of the Indian Ocean. While over the past 100 years the correlation had been both positive and negative, it…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-01 Stjepan Marcelja

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models are trained to predict forecast errors for the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using the New York State Mesonet and Oklahoma State Mesonet near-surface weather observations as ground truth.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-15 David Aaron Evans , Kara J. Sulia , Nick P. Bassill , Chris D. Thorncroft , Jay C. Rothenberger , Lauriana C. Gaudet

Recent unprecedented ocean warming has produced coherent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Despite extensive research on inter-basin interactions, the causal mechanisms linking North…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-05 Yoko Yamagami , Hiroaki Tatebe , Tsubasa Kohyama , Shoichiro Kido , Satoru Okajima

The main objective of this article is to establish a new mechanism of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as a self-organizing and self-excitation system, with two highly coupled processes. The first is the oscillation between the two…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2010-05-14 Tian Ma , Shouhong Wang

Deep learning (DL)-based general circulation models (GCMs) are emerging as fast simulators, yet their ability to replicate extreme events outside their training range remains unknown. Here, we evaluate two such models -- the hybrid Neural…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-28 Zilu Meng , Gregory J. Hakim , Wenchang Yang , Gabriel A. Vecchi

Most of the existing prediction methods gave a false alarm regarding the El Ni\~no event in 2014. A crucial aspect is currently limiting the success of such predictions, i.e. the stability of the slowly varying Pacific climate. This…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-31 Qing Yi Feng , Henk A. Dijkstra

Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-10-22 Gautier Cosne , Guillaume Maze , Pierre Tandeo

The increasingly populated cities of the 21st Century face the challenge of being sustainable and resilient spaces for their inhabitants. However, climate change, among other problems, makes these objectives difficult to achieve. The Urban…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Iñigo Delgado-Enales , Joshua Lizundia-Loiola , Patricia Molina-Costa , Javier Del Ser

Predicting motions of vessels in extreme sea states represents one of the most challenging problems in naval hydrodynamics. It involves computing complex nonlinear wave-body interactions, hence taxing heavily computational resources. Here,…