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This paper provides a systematic yet accessible presentation of the Contextuality-by-Default theory. The consideration is confined to finite systems of categorical random variables, which allows us to focus on the basics of the theory…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-30 Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov , Janne V. Kujala

Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Francesco Montagna , Francesco Locatello

Conditioning on some set of confounders that causally affect both treatment and outcome variables can be sufficient for eliminating bias introduced by all such confounders when estimating causal effect of the treatment on the outcome from…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-24 Priyantha Wijayatunga

The object of contextuality analysis is a set of random variables each of which is uniquely labeled by a content and a context. In the measurement terminology, the content is that which the random variable measures, whereas the context…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-09-05 Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov

Measurement incompatibility is the most basic resource that distinguishes quantum from classical physics. Contextuality is the critical resource behind the power of some models of quantum computation and is also a necessary ingredient for…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-02-20 Zhen-Peng Xu , Adán Cabello

Most traditional models of uncertainty have focused on the associational relationship among variables as captured by conditional dependence. In order to successfully manage intelligent systems for decision making, however, we must be able…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 David Heckerman , Ross D. Shachter

Model theoretic results such as Characterization and Definability give important information about different logics. It is well known that the proofs of those results for several modal logics have, somehow, the same 'taste'. A general proof…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2010-11-23 Facundo Carreiro

When teaching and discussing statistical assumptions, our focus is oftentimes placed on how to test and address potential violations rather than the effects of violating assumptions on the estimates produced by our statistical models. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-14 Ian A Silver

The inferential model (IM) framework provides valid prior-free probabilistic inference by focusing on predicting unobserved auxiliary variables. But, efficient IM-based inference can be challenging when the auxiliary variable is of higher…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

In many scientific contexts, different investigators experiment with or observe different variables with data from a domain in which the distinct variable sets might well be related. This sort of fragmentation sometimes occurs in molecular…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-09-05 Shuyan Wang

We propose a formal language for describing and explaining statistical causality. Concretely, we define Statistical Causality Language (StaCL) for expressing causal effects and specifying the requirements for causal inference. StaCL…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Yusuke Kawamoto , Tetsuya Sato , Kohei Suenaga

Entropies are fundamental measures of uncertainty with central importance in information theory and statistics and applications across all the quantitative sciences. Under a natural set of operational axioms, the most general form of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Roberto Rubboli , Erkka Haapasalo , Marco Tomamichel

We present counterfactual situation testing (CST), a causal data mining framework for detecting discrimination in classifiers. CST aims to answer in an actionable and meaningful way the intuitive question "what would have been the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Jose M. Alvarez , Salvatore Ruggieri

Invariant prediction uses the prediction stability of causal relationships across different environments to identify causal variables. Conversely, using causal variables gives prediction guarantees even in out-of-sample data settings. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Lucas Kania , Ernst Wit

We show that the ability to consider counterfactual situations is a necessary assumption of Bell's theorem, and that, to allow Bell inequality violations while maintaining all other assumptions, we just require certain measurement choices…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-12-25 Jonte R. Hance

Counterfactual explanations are gaining prominence within technical, legal, and business circles as a way to explain the decisions of a machine learning model. These explanations share a trait with the long-established "principal reason"…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-12-12 Solon Barocas , Andrew D. Selbst , Manish Raghavan

For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…

Computation · Statistics 2011-07-04 Chris Barnes , Sarah Filippi , Michael P. H. Stumpf , Thomas Thorne

Recently, it has been emphasized that the possibility theory framework allows us to distinguish between i) what is possible because it is not ruled out by the available knowledge, and ii) what is possible for sure. This distinction may be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Salem Benferhat , Didier Dubois , Souhila Kaci , Henri Prade

Algorithmic stability is a central concept in statistics and learning theory that measures how sensitive an algorithm's output is to small changes in the training data. Stability plays a crucial role in understanding generalization,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Abhinav Chakraborty , Yuetian Luo , Rina Foygel Barber

Many statistical methods require solutions to optimization problems. When the global solution is hard to attain, statisticians always use the better if there are two solutions for chosen, where the word "better" is understood in the sense…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-17 Shifeng Xiong