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We introduce the Markov Distributional Conformal Prediction (MDCP) method that extends the distributional conformal prediction (previously developed for regression) to the setting of a strictly stationary Markov process. Instead of relying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Dehao Dai , Kejin Wu , Dimitris N. Politis

The conditional particle filter (CPF) is a promising algorithm for general hidden Markov model smoothing. Empirical evidence suggests that the variant of CPF with backward sampling (CBPF) performs well even with long time series. Previous…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-29 Anthony Lee , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Matti Vihola

We consider parametric version of fixed-delay continuous-time Markov chains (or equivalently deterministic and stochastic Petri nets, DSPN) where fixed-delay transitions are specified by parameters, rather than concrete values. Our goal is…

Performance · Computer Science 2016-04-18 Tomáš Brázdil , Ľuboš Korenčiak , Jan Krčál , Petr Novotný , Vojtěch Řehák

We study the problem of distributed online control of networked systems with time-varying cost functions and disturbances, where each node only has local information of the states and forecasts of the costs and disturbances. We develop a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-18 Eric Xu , Soummya Kar , Guannan Qu

We introduce the idea that resampling from past observations in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler can fasten convergence. We prove that proper resampling from the past does not disturb the limit distribution of the algorithm. We illustrate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Yves F. Atchade

In this article we describe a new coupling technique which is useful in a variety of perfect sampling algorithms. A multishift coupler generates a random function f() so that for each real x, f(x)-x is governed by the same fixed probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-11 David Bruce Wilson

In this paper we provide a thorough, rigorous theoretical framework to assess optimality guarantees of sampling-based algorithms for drift control systems: systems that, loosely speaking, can not stop instantaneously due to momentum. We…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-10-28 Edward Schmerling , Lucas Janson , Marco Pavone

We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-27 Roberto Fontana , Francesca Romana Crucinio

We present a new framework to derandomise certain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. As in MCMC, we first reduce counting problems to sampling from a sequence of marginal distributions. For the latter task, we introduce a method…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Weiming Feng , Heng Guo , Chunyang Wang , Jiaheng Wang , Yitong Yin

We discuss coupling from the past techniques (CFTP) for perturbations of interacting particle systems on the d-dimensional integer lattice, with a finite set of states, within the framework of the graphical construction of the dynamics…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-22 Jean Bérard , Didier Piau

In this paper, we propose a distributed model predictive control (DMPC) scheme for linear time-invariant constrained systems which admit a separable structure. To exploit the merits of distributed computation algorithms, the stabilizing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-03-22 Georgios Darivianakis , Annika Eichler , John Lygeros

In this paper we study asymptotic properties of different data-augmentation-type Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms sampling from mixture models comprising discrete as well as continuous random variables. Of particular interest to us is…

Computation · Statistics 2014-04-04 Randal Douc , Florian Maire , Jimmy Olsson

We give a Markov chain based algorithm for sampling almost uniform solutions of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). Assuming a canonical setting for the Lov\'asz local lemma, where each constraint is violated by a small number of…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Weiming Feng , Kun He , Yitong Yin

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a modeling framework for autonomous decision making under uncertainty and imperfect sensing, e.g. robot manipulation and self-driving cars. However, optimal control of POMDPs…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Mohamadreza Ahmadi , Rangoli Sharan , Joel W. Burdick

Motion planning under differential constraints is a classic problem in robotics. To date, the state of the art is represented by sampling-based techniques, with the Rapidly-exploring Random Tree algorithm as a leading example. Yet, the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-03-03 Edward Schmerling , Lucas Janson , Marco Pavone

Order-preserving couplings are elegant tools for obtaining robust estimates of the time-dependent and stationary distributions of Markov processes that are too complex to be analyzed exactly. The starting point of this paper is to study…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-02 Lasse Leskelä

We consider a model for repeated stochastic matching where compatibility is probabilistic, is realized the first time agents are matched, and persists in the future. Such a model has applications in the gig economy, kidney exchange, and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Mobin Y. Jeloudar , Irene Lo , Tristan Pollner , Amin Saberi

We consider the trade-off problem between exploration and exploitation under finite discounted Markov Decision Process, where the state transition matrix of the underlying environment stays unknown. We propose a double Thompson sampling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Shuqing Shi , Xiaobin Wang , Zhiyou Yang , Fan Zhang , Hong Qu

Traditional methods for unsupervised learning of finite mixture models require to evaluate the likelihood of all components of the mixture. This becomes computationally prohibitive when the number of components is large, as it is, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Milan Papež , Tomáš Pevný , Václav Šmídl

In many branches of engineering, Banach contraction mapping theorem is employed to establish the convergence of certain deterministic algorithms. Randomized versions of these algorithms have been developed that have proved useful in…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-25 Abhishek Gupta , Rahul Jain , Peter Glynn