Related papers: Market-Based Price Autocorrelation
Volume imbalance in a limit order book is often considered as a reliable indicator for predicting future price moves. In this work, we seek to analyse the nuances of the relationship between prices and volume imbalance. To this end, we…
We explore heterogeneous prices as a source of heterogeneous or stochastic demand. Heterogeneous prices could arise either because there is actual price variation among consumers or because consumers (mis)perceive prices differently. Our…
In this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in supply and demand are slowly…
An empirical study of joint bivariate probability distribution of two consecutive price increments for a set of stocks at time scales ranging from one minute to thirty minutes reveals asymmetric structures with respect to the axes y=0, y=x,…
This article provides a simple explanation of the asymptotic concavity of the price impact of a meta-order via the microstructural properties of the market. This explanation is made more precise by a model in which the local relationship…
Time series models, typically trained on numerical data, are designed to forecast future values. These models often rely on weighted averaging techniques over time intervals. However, real-world time series data is seldom isolated and is…
We discuss the economic reasons why the predictions of price and return statistical moments in the coming decades, in the best case, will be limited by their averages and volatilities. That limits the accuracy of the forecasts of price and…
The variance measures the portfolio risks the investors are taking. The investor, who holds his portfolio and doesn't trade his shares, at the current time can use the time series of the market trades that were made during the averaging…
The determination of acceptability prices of contingent claims requires the choice of a stochastic model for the underlying asset price dynamics. Given this model, optimal bid and ask prices can be found by stochastic optimization. However,…
One the one hand, rough volatility has been shown to provide a consistent framework to capture the properties of stock price dynamics both under the historical measure and for pricing purposes. On the other hand, market price of volatility…
Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it is one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility…
We study a generic model for self-referential behaviour in financial markets, where agents attempt to use some (possibly fictitious) causal correlations between a certain quantitative information and the price itself. This correlation is…
We study the performance of the TimeBoost auction, by comparing cumulative fixed time markout of fast lane trades over the TimeBoost interval to bids for the fast lane. Such comparison allows us to assess how well bids predict future…
By studying all the trades and best bids/asks of ultra high frequency snapshots recorded from the order books of a basket of 10 futures assets, we bring qualitative empirical evidence that the impact of a single trade depends on the…
We study a market model in which the volatility of the stock may jump at a random time from a fixed value to another fixed value. This model was already described in the literature. We present a new approach to the problem, based on partial…
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability…
Mainstream financial econometrics methods are based on models well tuned to replicate price dynamics, but with little to no economic justification. In particular, the randomness in these models is assumed to result from a combination of…
In the Cont-Bouchaud model [cond-mat/9712318] of stock markets, percolation clusters act as buying or selling investors and their statistics controls that of the price variations. Rather than fixing the concentration controlling each…
The common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price changes, while small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while the liquidity…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a…