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This paper focuses on modelling surrender time for policyholders in the context of life insurance. In this setup, a large lapse rate at the first months of a contract is often observed, with a decrease in this rate after some months. The…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-18 Viviana G. R. Lobo , Thais C. O. Fonseca , Mariane B. Alves

Machine Learning permeates many industries, which brings new source of benefits for companies. However within the life insurance industry, Machine Learning is not widely used in practice as over the past years statistical models have shown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-29 Antoine Chancel , Laura Bradier , Antoine Ly , Razvan Ionescu , Laurene Martin , Marguerite Sauce

In the current insurance literature, prediction of insurance claims in the regression problem is often performed with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from several drawbacks: (i) model misspecification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Liang Hong

Modeling policyholders lapse behaviors is important to a life insurer since lapses affect pricing, reserving, profitability, liquidity, risk management, as well as the solvency of the insurer. Lapse risk is indeed the most significant life…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-13 Stéphane Loisel , Pierrick Piette , Jason Tsai

Death benefits are generally the largest cash flow item that affects financial statements of life insurers where some still do not have a systematic process to track and monitor death claims experience. In this article, we explore data…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-27 Shuang Yin , Guojun Gan , Emiliano A. Valdez , Jeyaraj Vadiveloo

Data on hundreds of variables related to individual consumer finance behavior (such as credit card and loan activity) is routinely collected in many countries and plays an important role in lending decisions. We postulate that the detailed…

General Economics · Economics 2021-11-09 Giacomo De Giorgi , Matthew Harding , Gabriel Vasconcelos

Risk prediction is central to both clinical medicine and public health. While many machine learning models have been developed to predict mortality, they are rarely applied in the clinical literature, where classification tasks typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-05 Maggie Makar , Marzyeh Ghassemi , David Cutler , Ziad Obermeyer

The use of models, even if efficient, must be accompanied by an understanding at all levels of the process that transforms data (upstream and downstream). Thus, needs increase to define the relationships between individual data and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-02 Dimitri Delcaillau , Antoine Ly , Alize Papp , Franck Vermet

Recent transformative and disruptive advancements in the insurance industry have embraced various InsurTech innovations. In particular, with the rapid progress in data science and computational capabilities, InsurTech is able to integrate a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-31 Zhiyu Quan , Changyue Hu , Panyi Dong , Emiliano A. Valdez

User churn, characterized by customers ending their relationship with a business, has profound economic consequences across various Business-to-Customer scenarios. For numerous system-to-user actions, such as promotional discounts and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-27 Shamik Bhattacharjee , Utkarsh Thukral , Nilesh Patil

The occurrence of a claim often impacts not one but multiple insurance coverages provided in the contract. To account for this multivariate feature, we propose a new individual claims reserving model built around the activation of the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-16 Marie Michaelides , Mathieu Pigeon , Hélène Cossette

Since the beginning of their history, insurers have been known to use data to classify and price risks. As such, they were confronted early on with the problem of fairness and discrimination associated with data. This issue is becoming…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-18 Laurence Barry , Arthur Charpentier

Underwriting is one of the important stages in an insurance company. The insurance company uses different factors to classify the policyholders. In this study, we apply several machine learning models such as nearest neighbour and logistic…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-04 Marjan Qazvini

This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-27 Sergio Alvares Maffra , John Armstrong , Teemu Pennanen

The insurance industry, with its large datasets, is a natural place to use big data solutions. However it must be stressed, that significant number of applications for machine learning in insurance industry, like fraud detection or claim…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-14 Sebastian Baran , Przemysław Rola

Insurance companies must manage millions of claims per year. While most of these claims are non-fraudulent, fraud detection is core for insurance companies. The ultimate goal is a predictive model to single out the fraudulent claims and pay…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-03 Leander Löw , Martin Spindler , Eike Brechmann

This paper addresses the identification of insurance models with multidimensional screening where insurees have private information about their risk and risk aversion. The model includes a random damage and the possibility of several…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-01-18 Gaurab Aryal , Isabelle Perrigne , Quang Vuong

Insurers underwrite risks: they calculate risks and decide on the insurance price. Insurers seem captivated by two trends enabled by Artificial Intelligence (AI). First, insurers could use AI for analysing more and new types of data to…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Marvin S. L. van Bekkum , Frederik Zuiderveen Borgesius , Tom Heskes

It is of high interest for a company to identify customers expected to bring the largest profit in the upcoming period. Knowing as much as possible about each customer is crucial for such predictions. However, their demographic data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-30 Jelena Stojanovic , Djordje Gligorijevic , Zoran Obradovic

We consider the problem of evaluating the performance of a decision policy using past observational data. The outcome of a policy is measured in terms of a loss (aka. disutility or negative reward) and the main problem is making valid…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-03 Sofia Ek , Dave Zachariah , Fredrik D. Johansson , Petre Stoica
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