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Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-11 Guillaume Kon Kam King , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Matteo Ruggiero

Deep models for Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting have recently demonstrated significant success. Channel-dependent models capture complex dependencies that channel-independent models cannot capture. However, the number of channels…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-09 Xin Zhou , Weiqing Wang , Wray Buntine , Shilin Qu , Abishek Sriramulu , Weicong Tan , Christoph Bergmeir

Learning a Markov Decision Process (MDP) from a fixed batch of trajectories is a non-trivial task whose outcome's quality depends on both the amount and the diversity of the sampled regions of the state-action space. Yet, many MDPs are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Giorgio Angelotti , Nicolas Drougard , Caroline P. C. Chanel

The key assumption underlying linear Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is that the learner has access to a known feature map $\phi(x, a)$ that maps state-action pairs to $d$-dimensional vectors, and that the rewards and transitions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Noah Golowich , Ankur Moitra , Dhruv Rohatgi

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-21 Flávio B Gonçalves , Marcos O. Prates , Victor H. Lachos

Efficient assessment of convolved hidden Markov models is discussed. The bottom-layer is defined as an unobservable categorical first-order Markov chain, while the middle-layer is assumed to be a Gaussian spatial variable conditional on the…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-10-19 Torstein Fjeldstad , Henning Omre

Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are tools for disentangling the contributions of latent cognitive processes in a given experimental paradigm. The present note analyzes MPT models subject to order constraints on subsets of its…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-11 Karl Christoph Klauer , Henrik Singmann , David Kellen

New types of high-resolution animal movement data allow for increasingly comprehensive biological inference, but method development to meet the statistical challenges associated with such data is lagging behind. In this contribution, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Ferdinand V. Stoye , Annika Hoyer , Roland Langrock

We consider the problem of statistical inference in a parametric finite Markov chain model and develop a robust estimator of the parameters defining the transition probabilities via minimization of a suitable (empirical) version of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-23 Abhik Ghosh

Recursive stochastic algorithms have gained significant attention in the recent past due to data driven applications. Examples include stochastic gradient descent for solving large-scale optimization problems and empirical dynamic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-27 Abhishek Gupta , Hao Chen , Jianzong Pi , Gaurav Tendolkar

We consider deep multivariate models for heterogeneous collections of random variables. In the context of computer vision, such collections may e.g. consist of images, segmentations, image attributes, and latent variables. When developing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Dmitrij Schlesinger , Boris Flach , Alexander Shekhovtsov

Sparse models, including sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, have emerged as an effective approach for scaling Transformer models. However, they often suffer from computational inefficiency since a significant number of parameters are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-27 Yuanhang Yang , Shiyi Qi , Wenchao Gu , Chaozheng Wang , Cuiyun Gao , Zenglin Xu

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are receiving much attention in learning a robust policy which is less sensitive to environment changes. There are an increasing number of works analyzing sample-efficiency of robust MDPs. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-13 Wenhao Yang , Han Wang , Tadashi Kozuno , Scott M. Jordan , Zhihua Zhang

There has been considerable recent interest in Bayesian modeling of high-dimensional networks via latent space approaches. When the number of nodes increases, estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo can be extremely slow and show poor…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-30 Emanuele Aliverti , Massimiliano Russo

This article is about estimation and inference methods for high dimensional sparse (HDS) regression models in econometrics. High dimensional sparse models arise in situations where many regressors (or series terms) are available and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

The classical linear ordering problem seeks a single ranking representing a given preference matrix. While suitable for homogeneous populations, it fails when observed preferences arise from several latent groups with distinct ranking…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Juan A. Aledo , Concepción Domínguez , Juan de Dios Jaime-Alcántara , Mercedes Landete

In a real life process evolving over time, the relationship between its relevant variables may change. Therefore, it is advantageous to have different inference models for each state of the process. Asymmetric hidden Markov models fulfil…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Carlos Puerto-Santana , Pedro Larrañaga , Concha Bielza

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Jonas Krampe , Efstathios Paparoditis

This paper addresses the problem of planning under uncertainty in large Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Factored MDPs represent a complex state space using state variables and the transition model using a dynamic Bayesian network. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-10 C. Guestrin , D. Koller , R. Parr , S. Venkataraman

Hidden tree Markov models allow learning distributions for tree structured data while being interpretable as nondeterministic automata. We provide a concise summary of the main approaches in literature, focusing in particular on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-01 Davide Bacciu , Daniele Castellana