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Sequential experimental design to discover interventions that achieve a desired outcome is a key problem in various domains including science, engineering and public policy. When the space of possible interventions is large, making an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Jiaqi Zhang , Louis Cammarata , Chandler Squires , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Caroline Uhler

A Bayesian design is given by maximising an expected utility over a design space. The utility is chosen to represent the aim of the experiment and its expectation is taken with respect to all unknowns: responses, parameters and/or models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-16 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree

We consider a Bayesian persuasion or information design problem where the sender tries to persuade the receiver to take a particular action via a sequence of signals. This we model by considering multi-phase trials with different…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-11-24 Shih-Tang Su , Vijay G. Subramanian , Grant Schoenebeck

Typical models of learning assume incremental estimation of continuously-varying decision variables like expected rewards. However, this class of models fails to capture more idiosyncratic, discrete heuristics and strategies that people and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Carlos G. Correa , Thomas L. Griffiths , Nathaniel D. Daw

Structural reliability analysis is concerned with estimation of the probability of a critical event taking place, described by $P(g(\textbf{X}) \leq 0)$ for some $n$-dimensional random variable $\textbf{X}$ and some real-valued function…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-13 Christian Agrell , Kristina Rognlien Dahl

Reinforcement learning (RL) offers a capable and intuitive structure for the fundamental sequential decision-making problem. Despite impressive breakthroughs, it can still be difficult to employ RL in practice in many simple applications.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-01-18 Aida Afshar , Wenchao Li

To avoid myopic behavior, multi-step lookahead Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms consider the sequential nature of BO and have demonstrated promising results in recent years. However, owing to the curse of dimensionality, most of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Mujin Cheon , Jay H. Lee , Dong-Yeun Koh , Calvin Tsay

Current reinforcement learning algorithms train an agent using forward-generated trajectories, which provide little guidance so that the agent can explore as much as possible. While realizing the value of reinforcement learning results from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-06 KyungMin Ko

We consider the problem of sequentially making decisions that are rewarded by "successes" and "failures" which can be predicted through an unknown relationship that depends on a partially controllable vector of attributes for each instance.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-18 Yingfei Wang , Chu Wang , Warren Powell

Sample efficiency has been one of the major challenges for deep reinforcement learning. Recently, model-based reinforcement learning has been proposed to address this challenge by performing planning on imaginary trajectories with a learned…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Guangxiang Zhu , Minghao Zhang , Honglak Lee , Chongjie Zhang

Agents that interact with other agents often do not know a priori what the other agents' strategies are, but have to maximise their own online return while interacting with and learning about others. The optimal adaptive behaviour under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-19 Luisa Zintgraf , Sam Devlin , Kamil Ciosek , Shimon Whiteson , Katja Hofmann

We propose a model-based lifelong reinforcement-learning approach that estimates a hierarchical Bayesian posterior distilling the common structure shared across different tasks. The learned posterior combined with a sample-based Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Haotian Fu , Shangqun Yu , Michael Littman , George Konidaris

Reward design is a fundamental, yet challenging aspect of reinforcement learning (RL). Researchers typically utilize feedback signals from the environment to handcraft a reward function, but this process is not always effective due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Alexander Bukharin , Yixiao Li , Pengcheng He , Tuo Zhao

The combination of deep neural network models and reinforcement learning algorithms can make it possible to learn policies for robotic behaviors that directly read in raw sensory inputs, such as camera images, effectively subsuming both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Avi Singh , Larry Yang , Kristian Hartikainen , Chelsea Finn , Sergey Levine

Feature engineering is a crucial step in the process of predictive modeling. It involves the transformation of given feature space, typically using mathematical functions, with the objective of reducing the modeling error for a given…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Udayan Khurana , Horst Samulowitz , Deepak Turaga

Deep ensembles have emerged as a powerful technique for improving predictive performance and enhancing model robustness across various applications by leveraging model diversity. However, traditional deep ensemble methods are often…

Bayesian inference has many advantages in decision making of agents (e.g. robotics/simulative agent) over a regular data-driven black-box neural network: Data-efficiency, generalization, interpretability, and safety where these advantages…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Chengmin Zhou , Ville Kyrki , Pasi Fränti , Laura Ruotsalainen

Sequential learning methods, such as active learning and Bayesian optimization, aim to select the most informative data for task learning. In many applications, however, data selection is constrained by unknown safety conditions, motivating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Cen-You Li , Olaf Duennbier , Marc Toussaint , Barbara Rakitsch , Christoph Zimmer

Back-stepping experience replay (BER) is a reinforcement learning technique that can accelerate learning efficiency in reversible environments. BER trains an agent with generated back-stepping transitions of collected experiences and normal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Guwen Lyu , Masahiro Sato

We consider the Bayesian active learning and experimental design problem, where the goal is to learn the value of some unknown target variable through a sequence of informative, noisy tests. In contrast to prior work, we focus on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-07-12 Yuxin Chen , S. Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause